中国锌期货研究框架

2025/12/3 More English Reports on【CITIC Futures International Service Platform】https://internationalservice.citicsf.com QualificationNo.F03088415从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0016667投资咨询号 QualificationNo.F3023159从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0013632投资咨询号 QualificationNo.F3074367从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0015479投资咨询号 GuiChenxi桂晨曦CFAPhD ShenZhaoming沈照明 China Futures Research Framework 中国期货研究框架系列报告https://internationalservice.citicsf.com * Click on the hyperlink of report titles to read historical reports Energy & Chemicals能化 Macro Economy宏观 20240201 China Crude Oil Futures Framework中国原油期货研究框架20240619 China LPG Research Framework中国液化石油气研究框架20240202 China PTA Futures Framework中国PTA期货研究框架20240725 China LLDPE Research Framework中国塑料期货研究框架20250123 China Methanol Futures Framework中国甲醇期货研究框架20240920 China Urea Research Framework中国尿素期货投研框架20241009 China SCFIS(EUROPE) Research Framework中国集运指数研究框架 20240717 China Macro Economy Framework中国宏观经济研究框架20240814 US Macro Economy Framework美国宏观经济研究框架 Equity Index股指 20251125 Hang Seng Biotech Index Research Framework恒生生物科技指数研究框架20240130 China Equity Index Futures Framework中国股指期货研究框架20241119 H.K. Equity Index Futures Framework港股期货分析框架 National Bond国债 Agricultural Products农业 20240131 China Government Bond Futures Framework中国国债期货研究框架20241016 US Treasury Bond Research Framework美国国债研究框架 20250811 China Soybean Meal Research Framework中国豆粕期货研究框架20251015 China Soybean Oil Research Framework中国豆油期货研究框架20250425 China Rapeseed Meal Research Framework中国菜粕研究框架20250521 China Rapeseed Oil Research Framework中国菜油研究框架20250826 China Palm Oil Futures Research Framework中国棕榈油期货研究框架20240208 China Live Hog Futures Framework中国生猪期货研究框架20250425 China Corn Price Long-cycle Review中国玉米价格长周期复盘20250722 China Natural Rubber Research Framework中国天然橡胶期货研究框架 Exchange Rate汇率 20250124 Exchange Rate Analysis Framework汇率分析框架20250221 Long-Term Framework of The US Dollar Index美元指数长周期框架 Risk Management风险管理 20250924 China Steel Futures钢材套保/20250701 China Iron Ore Futures铁矿石套保/20251127Iron Ore Delivery铁矿石交割/20251128 Iron Ore Basis铁矿石基差20250618 China Plastic Futures塑料期货/0528China Freight Futures航运期货 Metals金属 20240205 China Gold Futures Framework中国黄金期货研究框架20240206 China Copper Futures Framework中国铜期货研究框架20240207 China Iron Ore Futures Framework中国铁矿石期货研究框架20240808 China Steels Research Framework中国钢材产业研究框架20240618 China Lithium Research Framework中国锂产业研究框架20241209 Silicon Metal Research Framework工业硅研究框架 Cross Border Arbitrage跨境套利 20251031 Metal钢材/20250912 Palm Oil棕油/20250325 Natural Rubber天然橡胶/20250116 Soybean豆类/20250115 Copper铜/20250114 Iron Ore铁矿石/20221104Crude Oil原油/20240830 Statistical Regression Strategy Model中国期货跨境套利统计回归/20250731 China Equity Index and ETF Options中国股指期权与ETF期权套利 Abstract 摘要 ▫ThisreportintroducesthepricedriversofChinazincfuturesfromfourcoredimensions:demand,supply,inventory,andcost&basis,clarifyingtheintrinsicconnectionsbetweenmacroeconomicindicators,industrialpolicies,andzincmarketfluctuations,andprovidingacomprehensiveanalysisformarketparticipantsasareference. ▫Zincfuturespricesarejointlydrivenbymultiplefactors.Long-termtrendsaredeterminedbymacroeconomicsandindustrialpolicies,medium-termfluctuationsareaffectedbysupply-demandstructureandinventorychanges,andshort-termvolatilityisinfluencedbycosts,basis,andseasonalfactors.Theinfrastructure,realestate,automotive,andhomeapplianceindustriesarekeyobservationtargets,andoverseaseconomictrendsandenergypoliciesalsoplayanimportantroleinthemarket. ▫本研究框架从需求、供给、库存、成本与基差四大核心维度，分析中国锌期货的价格驱动因素与市场趋势，厘清宏观经济指标、产业政策与锌市场波动的内在关联，为市场参与者提供系统性分析参考。锌期货价格受多因素共同驱动：长期趋势由宏观经济与产业政策决定，中期波动受供需结构与库存变动影响，短期震荡则受成本、基差及季节性因素制约。基建、地产、家电汽车行业是核心观测对象，海外经济走势与能源政策也对市场起到重要调节作用。 目录CONTENT Demand 需求 1.1 Macro Demand 宏观需求 ▫GDP and fixed asset investment (FAI) are correlated with the long-termtrend of zinc demand. ▫Changes in the economic structure affect steel consumption intensity perunit of GDP/fixed asset investment. However, both the difficulty and errorof estimation are relatively large, and short-term demand cannot bejudged accurately.▫GDP和固定资产投资与锌需求的长期趋势相关。▫经济结构变化影响单位GDP/固投耗钢强度，但预估难度和误差均较大，且无法判断短期需求。 1.1 Macro Demand 宏观需求 ▫Apparent consumption is the basis of actual consumption and can relatively truly reflect changes in consumption. Actual demand can bereflected by apparent consumption plus zinc social inventory. ▫表观消费是实际消费的基础，可较为真实的反应消费变化。实际需求可通过表观消费+锌社会库存反应。 1.2 Sector Demand 1.2 Sector Demand 行业需求 ▫The operating rate of primary zinc consumption indirectly reflects the strength of zinc consumption. Among them, galvanizingprocessingaccounts for 66%, die-casting alloy for 15%, copper alloy for 12%, zinc salts for 2%, and batteries for 1%. ▫In end-use zinc consumption, infrastructure and real estate are the main components. Specifically, infrastructure accounts for 26%, real estatefor 21.5%, transportation for 18%, household goods for 14%, and machinery for 6.5%. ▫锌终端消费中基建与地产占主要部分，其中基础设施占比26%，地产占比21.5%，交通占18%，家用品占14%，机械占6.5%。 1.2.1 Sector Demand: Real E