中国甲醇期货研究框架

January2025 从业资格号：F3039655QualificationNo.投资咨询号：Z0013196InvestmentconsultingNo. 从业资格号：F3056728QualificationNo.投资咨询号：Z0014122InvestmentconsultingNo. 胡佳鹏HuJiaPeng 桂晨曦CFA PhDGui Chenxi 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business.The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do notconstitute investment advice to anyone. CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to the attention, receipt, or reading of this report. 目录 CONTENT 02甲醇供应分析Methanol Supply 01甲醇产业链Methanol Industry 03甲醇需求分析Methanol Demand 04甲醇价格分析Price Analysis 04甲醇合约介绍Futures Contract Click thehyperlinkto the specific chapter点击链接跳转至相应章节 返回目录Return To Content 甲醇产业链Methanol Industry 1.1Methanol Industry Chain甲醇产业链 ▫InChina,methanolisprimarilyproducedfromcoal,cokeovengas(COG),andnaturalgas.Therapiddevelopmentofthe methanoltoolefins(MTO)technologyinrecentyearshascreatedanimportantdownstreamdemandformethanol.▫国内甲醇由煤炭、天然气、焦炉气生产，其中煤炭占比最高；甲醇下游中MTO发展最快，已成为最大下游。 1.2Methanol Industry Chain甲醇产业链 ▫Asanimportantrawmaterialfororganicchemicals,methanoliswidelyusedtoproducearangeoforganicchemicals,includingolefins,methanal,methoxymethane,methyltert-butylether(MTBE),anddimethylformamide(DMF). ▫甲醇作为有机化学品的一种重要原料，被广泛用于生产一系列有机化学品，包括烯烃、甲醛、甲醚、甲基叔丁基醚（MTBE）以及二甲基甲酰胺（DMF）。 返回目录Return To Content 甲醇供应分析Methanol Supply 2.1 Methanol Is Still In The Capacity Expansion Cycle甲醇仍处于投产周期 ▫DomesticMethanolproductioncapacitycontinuestogrow.In2024,theexpectedgrowthrateis4%，concentratedinthethirdandfourthquarters. ▫2024年全球甲醇产能约1.87亿吨，同比产能增速4.27%。甲醇新增产能主要集中在中国和伊朗地区，2025年中国计划投产1270万吨。 2.2 Track the future supply increments.未来供应增量观察 ▫In2025,themethanolproductioncapacityacrossthecountrywillreach124.86milliontons,andthegrowthrateofproductioncapacitywillincreasesignificantlyby11.32%year-on-year. ▫2025年全国甲醇产能将达到12486万吨，产能增速11.32%同比大幅提升。 2.3 Supply: Operating Rate国内供应端主要关注甲醇开工变化 ▫Changes in the start-up of refineries affect short-term market supply.The start-up of refineries has seasonality.Methanolplantsusingnaturalgasasrawmaterialhavearelativelylowstart-uprateinwinter. ▫炼厂开工变化影响短期市场供应，炼厂开工具有一定季节性，气制冬季开工较低。 2.4 Supply: Import海外供应关注伊朗进口 ▫Afterbeingsanctioned,Iranmainlymaintainsitsmethanolexportvolumethroughthewayofre-exporting.VirtuallyallthemethanolimportedbytheUnitedArabEmiratesandOmanisre-exportedIranianmethanol. ▫伊朗在受到制裁后，主要通过转口方式维持甲醇出口量，由阿联酋和阿曼进口的甲醇基本均为伊朗甲醇转口。 甲醇需求分析Methanol Demand 3.1 Demand for methanol in olefins has increased.烯烃需求占比抬升后偏稳，小类下游投产增多 ▫Currently,amongthedownstreamdemands,thedemandforolefinsremainsatthecore.Subsequently,themaindownstreamdemandswillmainlyfocusonthedemandforBDO driven by the growth of the textile andbiodegradableindustries,the demands for EVA anddimethylcarbonatebroughtaboutbythedevelopmentofthenewenergyindustry,aswellasthedemandforMTBEresultingfromdomesticoilblendingneedsandforeignexportdemands. ▫目前下游需求中，烯烃需求仍为核心，后续下游需求主要以纺织和可降解行业增长下的BDO需求、新能源产业发展带来的EVA和碳酸二甲酯需求，以及国内调油需求和国外出口需求的MTBT为主。 3.2 Differentiation of downstream refinery products.下游炼厂产品差异化 ▫Refineries use methanol to produce various types of chemical products.The East China region is the area whereconsumptionisthemostconcentrated,coveringalmostalldownstreamproducts.Thedifferencesindownstreamproductsamongdifferentmanufacturersleadtovariationsinprofitability. ▫国内炼厂使用甲醇生产多种类型化工品，华东地区是消费最集中区域，几乎包含了所有下游产品，不同厂家下游产品不同带来盈利能力差异性。 3.3 The traditional demand for methanol is relatively dispersed传统需求较为分散 ▫Therearedifferencesintheoperatingratesofdownstreamindustries.Theoperatingrateofformaldehydeproductionisaffectedbytherealestatecycle;theoperatingrateofMTBEproductionishighlycorrelatedwiththedemandforgasoline.下游开工存差异性，其中甲醛开工受地产周期影响；MTBE开工与汽油需求高度相关；醋酸开工受下游EVA等需求影响。 3.4 The fundamentals of downstream olefins in MTO are underpressure.MTO需求承压 ▫Domestically,thedemandforolefinsaccountsforthelargestproportion.However,theinlandregionsmainlyrelyonself-sufficiencyinmethanol,andtheMTOplantsinShandongandEastChinaarethemainpurchasersfromexternalsources.Currently,thesupplyanddemandofolefinsareunderpressure.MTOisoperatingwithlowprofits,andtheenthusiasmforpurchasingmethanolasarawmaterialisjustso-so.国内烯烃需求占比最大，但内地甲醇自给自足为主，山东和华东MTO是外采主体；目前烯烃供需承压，MTO维持低利润运行，原料甲醇采购积极性一般。 期货合约介绍Futures Contract 4.1 Futures Contract–Contract Specification & Delivery期货合约与交割简介 ▫MethanolcontracthasthefollowingLastTradingDay:the10thtradingdayofthedeliverymonth，acontractsizeof10metrictons/lot.合约单位为10吨/手;最后交易日为合约月份第十个交易日 4.2 Futures Contract–Delivery交割简介 ▫Ontopoftheone-timedeliveryandfutures-to-spotdelivery,Methanolhasintroducedrollingdelivery.▫在一次性交割以及期转现交割制度基础上，增加滚动交割方式。▫RollingDelivery:Duringtheperiodfromthefirsttradingdayofthedeliverymonthtothedaybeforethelasttradingday,thesellerwhoholdsthestandardwarehousereceiptsandthedeliverymonthorderscaninitiatetheprocess.Theexchangethenorganizesthematchingofbuyerandsellertocompletethedeliverywithinthespecifiedtime.T