Market GPS 2026年投资展望

MARKET GPSINVESTMENT 2026OUTLOOK Market GPSshares ourthinking to help navigatethe investment landscapeand prepare for theroute ahead. WHAT’S INSIDE: MACRO OVERVIEWPORTFOLIOTRENDS>Equities>Fixed Income>Alternatives A new opportunity set: AI, reform, and divergence This economic and market environment is one of profound change and therefore presents a meaningfulopportunity set for active investors. Sources of change include the revolution in artificial intelligence (AI), reform inEurope, geopolitical realignment, and global monetary policy continuing to diverge. What does this mean for investors?The outcomes of these developments are far from settled. While there aremany reasons for optimism, we believe investors should maintain a balanced approach to risk. OurMarket GPSInvestment Outlook 2026highlights six portfolio positioning trends for consideration. Read on for actionabletakeaways to help navigate the route ahead. AIis a powerful secular trend with major investment implications. Productivity gains are emerging, but hyperscalerstrade at high multiples. Success will largely hinge on whether earnings growth justifies valuations – a challenge webelieve leading tech firms can meet. Global equitiesare processing multiple positive catalysts. Ex-U.S. markets may gain from European fiscal reformand stronger Chinese stimulus, complementing U.S. stocks supported by a resilient consumer and lower rates.These trends provide a tailwind for cyclical, rate-sensitive small- and mid-caps. However, a slowing U.S. labormarket and sticky inflation could hit real-income growth, threatening this momentum. Outside of the U.S., expectations for earnings growth leave more room for improvement. Withinfixed income,central bank policy remains pivotal. Local bond outcomes hinge on whether economiesextend the cycle or risk contraction — and how central banks react. In Europe, aggressive rate cuts to support jobs,combined with potential fiscal measures such as defense spending, could benefit cyclical and consumer-focusedcorporate credits. A new opportunity set(CONTINUED) In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has only recently resumed ratecuts, offering opportunity to extend U.S. duration if reductions followconsensus. Positioning within fixed income depends on whether easingaddresses a soft patch (supporting corporate credit) or a contraction(favoring government bonds). Labor and services weakness couldoutweigh strong manufacturing and resilient consumers, while a collapsein U.S. consumption would ripple through the global economy. With geopolitics likely to continueto serve up surprises, investorsmust be mindful of risks andconsider the benefits of activelypositioned portfolios.Thefollowing six themes highlightwhat we believe are investableopportunities for 2026basedon insight from our investmentteams and Portfolio Construction& Strategy experts. Tactical fixed income With policy now dictated by local conditions, bond investors might sourceduration in regions positioned for easing while adding risk in those that have takensteps to support their economies. EQUITIES >AI:A sustainable catalyst>Small cap:Biotech innovationand M&A>Ex-U.S.:Opportunity in Europe FIXED INCOME >Securitized:Yield potentialand resilience>Multi-sector:Beyondthe benchmark ALTERNATIVES >Private credit:Structure asa strategy Loose financial conditions have boosted risk assets but left some fixed income segments expensive.Tight corporate bond spreads signal strong optimism but also make high-yield bonds more sensitive toeconomic conditions, whereas securitized credits offer better spread cushions and similar yields. Asprivate credit finds greater uptake in portfolios, investors must assess borrower characteristics andconcentration risks. AI: A sustainable catalyst Much of the current equities rally has been driven by the promise of AI unleashing an unprecedented wave ofproductivity gains across the global economy.Given the length of the rally and the valuations commanded bymajor players in the AI ecosystem, some wonder whether these stocks have entered bubble territory. The answer,in our view, is a resounding no. AI-related valuations are a fraction of the multiples commanded during the dot-comera. Furthermore, the potential for AI hyperscalers (large-scale cloud computing providers) to compound earningsas other industrial sectors – and sovereigns – recognize the necessity of procuring access to this technologymeans many tech companies are well positioned to grow into their valuations. In fact, AI earnings growth hasoften been inhibited by capacity constraints, not soft demand. This imbalance is driving the historic investment inAI infrastructure. And unlike the unused bandwidth seen during the 1990s, every AI chip produced has a queue ofeager buyers. While short-term corrections are inevitable, AI’s trajectory points to enduring long-term growth. This is not dot-com 2.0 Current valuations and profitability of leading tech companies d