台积电：更多CoWoS助力实现五年AI目标营收增长

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Outperform Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 1,800.00 TWD(1,444.00OLD)330.00 USD(290.00OLD) TSMC: More CoWoS for more revenue toward 5-year AI target More CoWoS, more XPU & 23% revenue growth in 2026.We raise TSMC CoWoScapacity to 125K wpm exiting 2026 &, together with some from OSATs the total CoWoScapacity 1250K/yr in 2026. This will be roughly just enough to support projects announcedrecently (e.g. US$0.5T from Blackwell & Rubin for NVIDIA in 2025 & 2026) but not muchmore. N2 & price hike on N3/5 will buttress smartphone revenue & mature-node demand isalso improving. Thus we forecast TSMC revenue to grow 23% this year & 20% in 2027. Close Date5 Dec 20252330.TT Close Price (TWD)1,460.00Price Target (TWD)1,800.00Upside/(Downside)23%52-Week Range1,525.00/780.00ASIAX1,616.32FYEDecDiv Yield1.4%Market Cap (TWD) (B)37,861.49EV (TWD) (B)36,173.15 Mild margin dip & 20% EPS CAGR in the next 2 years.With more benign FX & better costcontrol alleviating cost burden from oversea production, we model gross margin dip 150bpsover 2 years & EPS growing at 20% CAGR in 2026 & 2027. 55-60GW to meet TSMC’s 5-year AI target.We estimate it takes 55-60GW AI datacenter buildup from now to 2029 for TSMC to expand its AI revenue at mid-40% CAGR.As 55-60GW is close to the forecast of Bloomberg New Energy Finance & perhaps belowthe forecasts from IEA & many others, it appears there is sufficient energy to meet TSMC’starget? We model TSMC’s capex at US$47B next year.N3 is tight, but TSMC will invest moreon N2 as mobile shifting to N2 will release N3 capacity next year. We expect TSMC to haverevenue grow faster & reduce the capex/revenue ratio over time. Outperformwith1-year price target at NT$1,800.00 on 20x forward P/E. We’re slightlyabove consensus on revenue, a tad below on margins, but 5% above on EPS. We view TSMCa quality compounder and a core holding for investors. Investment Implications Outperform with PT raised to NT$1,800.00 on 20x forward P/E (vs. 19x previously onstronger AI outlook) and revised up Q5-Q8 EPS. DETAILS We forecast higher AI XPU demand & CoWoS capacity and model TSMC's revenue to grow 23% next year & 20% in2027. •In response to the recent AI data center announcements, we expect TSMC to expand capacity and capture more revenue.The contribution from data center AI accelerator (i.e. “XPU”) is projected to rise from 14.4% of TSMC’s total revenue last yearto 22.5% this year and 27.3% in 2026 (Exhibit 1 ). •To support the growth, we expect TSMC to expand CoWoS capacity, from originally 110K wpm exiting 2026 to ~125K. ASE(3711 TT, not covered) and Amkor (AMKR US, not covered) will also offer some CoWoS-like capacity which however maynot turn effective until customer qualification completes & hence likely more toward 2H26. Together we expect the annualCoWoS capacity globally to rise from 724K wafers this year to 1,250K in 2026 (Exhibit 2). TSMC is conservative but we seean upside risk to this projection as this is roughly just enough to support recent updates, for example NVIDIA (NVDA US,covered by Bernstein US Semi team)’s guidance of US$0.5T from Blackwell and Rubin in 2025 & 2026, but not materiallybeyond. •For smartphone & mature-node demand, many worry that they will be crowded out by the memory price surge, and we alsoexpect some impacts too. However, TSMC’s smartphone revenue is well buttressed by the transition to N2 and price increaseon N3 and N5 and will continue growing. Recent supply chain checks also revealed that the mature-node demand is quicklyimproving too, as customers come to TSMC for chips supporting XPU. This is helping TSMC recover the over-capacity builtduring COVID, and is driving its utilization back to the pre-COVID level (Exhibit 3). Considering all these, we model TSMC’stotal revenue to grow 23% in 2026 & another 20% in 2027 (Exhibit 4). EXHIBIT 1:The contribution from data center XPU isprojected to rise from 14.4% of TSMC’s total revenuelast year to 22.5% this year and 27.3% in 2026. EXHIBIT 2:We expect the annual CoWoS capacityglobally to rise from 724K wafers this year to 1,250K in2026. EXHIBIT 3:We expect TSMC to recover from the over-capacity built during COVID and its utilization to riseback to the pre-COVID level. EXHIBIT 4:We model TSMC’s total revenue to grow 23%in 2026 & another 20% in 2027. With more benign FX & better cost control mitigating oversea cost burden, TSMC is expected to keep its marginlimited & expand its EPS at 20% CAGR in the next 2 years. •In light of the oversea costs, we remain slightly more conservative relative to consensus on margins, but also recognize thatFX has turned more benign (Exhibit 5), and the 2H25 margin results & guidance are above expectation. We hence modela mild dip in margins from 2025 to 2027 (Exhibit 6). With that, EPS is expected to grow a pace very close to revenue’s anddeliver 20% CA