2026年亚太地区私募资本展望

2026 APAC PrivateCapital Outlook Institutional Research Group Ansel TanDirector of Research,APAC Private Capitalansel.tan@pitchbook.com Our analysts’ outlook for APAC private capital in 2026 Melanie TngResearch Analyst,APAC Private Capitalmelanie.tng@pitchbook.com PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on December 5, 2025 2026 outlooks 3A monetary easing cycle across APAC will drive private marketdeal momentum.6APAC exits will recover in 2026 amid easing trade tensions.9China’s private markets will turn inward amid global realignment.11Southeast Asia’s venture market will find its bottom in 2026.13The nascent GP-led secondaries market in Asia will see growth in 2026. Introduction Private capital markets in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region are entering 2026 on firmerfooting, but with a recovery that remains incomplete and uneven. Global monetarypolicy has pivoted toward easing, reducing financing costs and helping stabilizevaluations across both public and private markets. These macroeconomic tailwindsare restoring confidence at the margins, yet capital deployment and fundraising acrossAPAC remain cautious, reflecting lingering risk aversion among investors and the slowtransmission of liquidity into private market activity. For 2026, APAC’s outlook is one of gradual normalization rather than broadacceleration. The regional landscape continues to fragment along lines of depth,policy stability, and domestic capital capacity. India and Japan are expected toremain the most dynamic markets, supported by deep institutional investor bases,regulatory reform, and consistent corporate activity. China, by contrast, is evolvinginto a more self-contained private capital ecosystem, dominated by renminbi-basedfunds, local LPs, and policy-backed industrial investment as nondomestic participationdeclines. Southeast Asia remains in adjustment mode after two years of contraction,with managers emphasizing capital discipline, sector specialization, and liquiditymanagement while awaiting clearer signs of recovery. Australia and South Korea sitbetween these poles: Both show steady capital recycling and corporate divestituremomentum but still depend on global sentiment to sustain growth. Across the region, three structural themes define the year ahead. First, local capitalformation is increasingly critical as global LPs retrench and domestic investors—fromfamily offices to sovereign vehicles—step into larger roles. Second, alternative liquiditymechanisms, such as secondary transactions, continuation funds, and private credit,are becoming integral to portfolio management as traditional IPO markets remainselective. Third, policy alignment and institutional reform—from Japan’s governanceinitiatives to Singapore’s fund-of-funds expansion and Australia’s listing reforms—aregradually deepening regional market infrastructure and improving long-term resilience. Taken together, these dynamics point to a year of measured rebuilding for APACprivate capital. The region is unlikely to deliver synchronized growth, but its diversityof capital sources and policy environments provide a foundation for stability. As globalliquidity improves and local ecosystems mature, 2026 will likely mark a transitionfrom retrenchment toward cautious reinvestment, laying the groundwork for a morebalanced and internally sustained private capital cycle in the years ahead. OUTLOOK Ansel TanDirector of Research, APAC Private Capitalansel.tan@pitchbook.com A monetary easing cycle across APAC will drive privatemarket deal momentum. Asia’s economies enter 2026 with monetary conditions easing across most of theregion, as the major central banks weigh stabilizing inflation against a backdrop ofuneven, uncertain growth. In its recent Regional Economic Outlook, the InternationalMonetary Fund projects aggregate growth in Asia to moderate at 4.1% in 2026, downfrom estimates of 4.5% for 2025.1This slower pace is predominantly attributed to theadverse impacts of ongoing trade policy uncertainties, rising tariffs, and geopoliticaltensions, all of which disproportionately affect export-oriented economies across theregion. Meanwhile, inflation on the whole has stabilized across both advanced and emerging Asian markets, affording room for policymakers to maneuver. Invariably forsuch a diverse region, central banks across Asia will not move in lockstep. Broadly,however, several Asian policymakers had already commenced or continued theirpath of monetary easing in 2025 to support growth, though the pace and extent havevaried across the region.2For example, China and South Korea have leaned towardeasing conditions as growth concerns mount amid weaker manufacturing activity andsofter exports. India and Singapore sat in a neutral-to-easing stance, while Australiaremained data-dependent after several cuts