2026年世界展望：精彩纷呈

2026: Anything but dull Jim Reid 2026 promises to be anything but dull. Rapid AI investment and adoption willcontinueto dominate market sentiment.Given the pace of technologicaladvancement,it is difficult to believe this won’t translate into meaningfulproductivity gains ahead. However, the ultimate winners and losers will depend ona complex interplay of evolving factors, many of which may not become apparentuntil after 2026. In the meantime, markets could swing sharply between boom-and- Global Head of Macro and Thematic Research David Folkerts-Landau, Ph.D.Group Chief Economist & Global Head ofResearch Global growth in real terms is expected to mirror 2024 and 2025, but the sources ofthat growth are shifting. TheUnited Statesis projected to re-accelerate as tradeuncertainty fades, household incomes benefit from tax cuts, and growth broadensbeyond AI-related capex.Germany, after years of stagnation, is positioned for oneof the most meaningful rebounds among major economies thanks to newly Inflation continues to normalise across major economies, though not fully back topre-pandemic norms. As a result, central banks remain cautious: our economistsexpect the Fed to deliver only two further cuts before pausing, while theECBisexpected to stay on hold until a hike in mid-2027. Our rates strategists see upward AI continues to shape market dynamics. Our equity strategists expect the earningscycle to broaden beyond mega-cap tech, with S&P 500 EPS reaching $320 (+14%)anda year-end target of 8000.They also remain overweight Europe butunderweightJapan. Credit spreads should widen modestly as the US cyclebecomes more uneven — echoing the late-1990s divergence between equities and Table Of ContentsOverview............................................................................3Key Event Risks to Watch in 2026......................................9United States....................................................................11Euro Area..........................................................................15Germany...........................................................................20United Kingdom...............................................................22 Overview 2026 promises to be anything but dull. The rapid growth in AI investment andadoptionwill continue to dominate market sentiment.Given the observedadvancements in the technology, it is almost impossible to believe that this won’ttranslate into significant productivity gains in the years ahead. However, theultimate winners and losers will hinge on a complex interplay of evolving factors,many of which may not become apparent until after 2026. In the meantime, The world economy in real terms is expected to grow at similar rates in 2026 to thoseseen in 2024 and 2025. Within this, our economists expect US growth to accelerate,alongside a significant boost to German activity given the substantial fiscalstimulus recently commenced. This will be offset by slightly weaker growth in therest of Europe, off a higher base after a surprisingly resilient 2025, with a similartrend anticipated inJapan. European growth momentum, however, will likelyincrease through the year. Our economists foresee a half-percent decline inChina’s After a turbulent 2025, the US economy is projected to achieve a more solid footingin 2026, benefiting from fading trade-policy uncertainty and a boost to householdincome from tax cuts. AI has played a role in ensuring the US economy has survived Our economists have upgraded their 2026 US GDP growth outlook by 0.4percentage points (pp) to 2.4% on both an annual/annual and Q4/Q4 basis. Thisacceleration, particularly in the first half of 2026, is driven by a mechanical reboundfrom a government shutdown, accommodative financial conditions helped by Fedrate cuts, fiscal support (including larger tax refunds), and the easing of trade Regarding inflation, US disinflation is expected to continue in the second half of2026, with core PCE inflation forecast to remain near 3% in the first half of the yearbeforedecelerating to 2.4%by Q4 2026.Significant shelter disinflation isanticipated, although our economists note that tariffs could lift core goods pricesand “super-core” inflation may remain sticky. Risks are balanced: targeted tariff Having said that, our economists are slightly more hawkish than consensus,expecting only two more Fed rate cuts before year-end 2026. The US labour market,after gradually cooling in 2025, is anticipated to stabilise and show signs of re-tightening over 2026. Hiring is expected to firm in line with growth, but risks remain The risks to the US outlook are two-sided. Recession probabilities are somewhatelevated due to the precarious nature of the labour market. AI also presents two-sidedrisks:downside risks include a stock-market correction or layoffs independence or renewed fiscal-trajectory concerns stemming from lower tariff Moving across the Atlantic, our economists expect full-year growth in th