2025年美国假日购物预测

Methodology Only industry report that measures direct consumer transactions Over1 Trillionvisits to U.S. retail websites100 million product SKUs, across 18 product categories 85 of the top 100* U.S. Internet retailers use Adobe Experience Cloud to power their digital business •Only Adobe can access a high volume of consumer transactions •Data is aggregated and anonymized to provide insights Complementary survey based on responses from 5,000 U.S. consumers, fielded between September 9thand September 16th, 2025 Executive Summary •Online holiday sales are set to surpass $250 billion for the first time, driven by resilient growth across core retail categories and apronounced seasonal surge above pre-holiday levels. •Mobile is now the dominant channel for online shopping year-round, with its share expected to climb even higher this holiday.Ensuring a seamless mobile experience is now mission-critical for capturing holiday demand. •Deep, strategic discounting will be essential to unlock growth, as value-conscious consumers actively seek the best deals. •Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) adoption will accelerate, with Cyber Monday projected to be the first day ever to exceed $1 billionin •Social networks, affiliates, and paid search will be the primary engines of holiday revenue growth. Influencer and affiliatestrategies are delivering outsized conversion gains. •Reddit and Instagram are emerging as top-performing referral sources, driving significant increases in both traffic and visitorsharefor brands. •GenAI-powered referrals to retail sites are expected to grow by over 500% year-over-year, with traffic peaking in the days leadingup to Thanksgiving—especially 10 days prior. 2025 Holiday Season Online Spending to cross $250 Billion Dollars •Online retail is expected tosee moderate growththis season(Nov-Dec) which is poised to make2025 the first quarter of a trillion-dollar holiday •Adobe forecastsa record $253.4 billiondollarswillbe spent online this holiday season (Nov-Dec). •Holiday spend growth is expected to reach5.3%YoY(year-on-year) but could fluctuate between3.7% ($250.3B)to6% ($255.9B). Black Friday Gains Share of Cyber Week Growth •Black Fridaywill see the highest growthoverthe Cyber Week periodat8.3%YoYand$11.7Binrevenue, continuing •Cyber Monday growth is projected at a slightlylower6.3% YoYthough it still maintains •Strong discounts drive the seasonal CyberWeek (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) growthtoabout 6.3%YoYand draw in$43.7B,that’s17.2%of the season'srevenue. "Mobile-first" Holiday Season to Close the First Mobile-first year •Mobile deviceshavecemented their position asthe dominant onlineshopping format, with 2025poised to become the first full year with more •Adobe forecasts mobile revenue share to hit arecord56.1%for the holiday season with 7 in 10online retail visits happening on mobile devices. •Arecord$142.7billion will be spent via mobilethis holiday season, up8.5%YoY Variedgrowth expected from Major Categories •Electronicsare projected to generate$57.5billion with a4%YoY growth. •Grocerywill drive$23.5Bin revenue, with9.3%YoY growth.Over indexing season growth, but slower than last year's •Cosmeticswill net$8.4B, with9.1%growth, continuing tooverperform and gain revenue share. •Apparel:Expected to drive$47.6 billionin spend, reflectinga4.4%YoY growth for the season. •Toys:Anticipated to grow by7.3%YoY, generating$8.8billion. •Furniture and Home goodswill grow at6.5%and$31.1B. •Sporting Goodswill drive$8.2B,with5.1%growth. Price Sensitivity has Moderated, but Promotional Events Still Drive Growth •Sensitivity to price change has decreased by12.8%onaverage so far in 2025, with a 1% change in price effectingan average 1.09% change in demand in 2025 compared to •The decline in sensitivity to discounted prices has •The muted sensitivity price change is likely due in part toconsumer willingness to purchase full-price items or evenitems that have increased in price with the expectation •While the direct response to discounts on individualproducts may not be as strong in the 2025 holiday seasonas in 2024, the presence of deep discounts willbe vital to High-end goods will capture a greater share during the holiday season •The willingness of consumers to spend when they believeprices are as low as they will be is particularly true for high-dollar items. During the 2025 holiday season the share of •Holiday unit-share boost for most expensive products across oSporting Goods:+56%oElectronics:+52%oAppliances:+39%oPersonal Care Products:+32%oTools and Home Improvement:+26%oBooks:+5%oToys:+3%oApparel:+8%oHome and Garden:4%oGrocery:-3% Deepest discounts for the season are expected to reach up to 28% •Deep discounts are expected to continue to push earlier in the season, with discounts in the first 2 weeks of Novemberas deep as13% offand pre-Thanksgiving discounts up to21% offbefore peak season discounts reach28% offduring •Discounts are expected to remain strong throu