加拿大乳制品年度报告

Report Name:Dairy and Products Annual Country:Canada Post:Ottawa Report Category:Dairy and Products Prepared By:Mihai Lupescu Approved By:Daniel Archibald Report Highlights: FAS/Canada projects modest milk production growth in 2026, driven by a slight increase inrequirements forindustrial milk, and steady consumption of fluid milk. Production of cheese and butteris also forecast to increase modestly in 2026, in the face of adequate stocks, and solid demand. Growthin cheese imports is expected to taper off in 2026, as market access under all tariff rate quotas maturedand reached the phase of marginal expansion. Skim milk powder exports are expected to remain withinthe limits set by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, while the industry continues to focus onproducing high-protein dairy ingredients. Executive Summary:In 2025, growth in Canada’s population returned to the slower-paced long-term trend, and so did total fluid milk consumption, which is forecast to grow by 0.4 percent in 2026, after anestimated 0.3 percentincrease in 20251. With demand for industrial milk steady, FAS/Canada forecasts a modest 0.7 percentgrowth in overall milk production (fluid and industrial markets combined) in 2026, following anestimated 1 percent production increase in 2025. As discussed in the skim milk powder section of thisreport, the solids non-fat to butterfat ratio in Canadian milk has been on decline for the past five years,meaning that proportionally less milk is needed to meet a certain level of butterfat requirements. As market access volumes under Canada’s various import tariff rate quotas (TRQs) reached a plateau,growth in cheese imports is expected to slow down in 2026. The cheese TRQs under the ComprehensiveEconomic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union (EU) attained their maximumvolumes of 17,700 metric tons (MT) in 2022, while cheese TRQs under the Comprehensive andProgressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will expand at a modest rate, to reach 14,940 MT and 12,625 MTrespectively, in 2026. In addition, Canada will continue to import over 20,400 MT of cheese–predominantly from EU countries–under a TRQ established at the World Trade Organization (WTO)in1995. Butter stocks have diminished slightly over the past year, reaching approximately 26,000 MT in July2024, compared to about 27,000 MT one year earlier, prompting the estimated 1.8 percent growth inbutter production in 2025. Facing steady demand,FAS/Canada expects a modest 0.9 percent increase inbutter production in 2026, while butter imports will continue to benefit from marginally expanded TRQvolumes under CPTPP and USMCA, which combined will reach 12,500 MT in 2026. Additionally, totake advantage of Canada’s import to re-export programs (incorporating cheaper imported butter intofinished processed foods destined for export markets), demand from food manufacturers will fuelimports. USMCA provisions impose export surcharges on Canadian exports of skim milk powder (SMP) andmilk protein concentrates (MPC)2in excess of 37,151 MT. To date, these USMCA commitments areeffective in limiting Canada’s exports of SMP and MPC. FAS/Canada forecasts SMP exports at 18,000MT in 2026, 3,000 MT above theestimated level for 2025. SMP production is expected to decline, withthe 2026 level forecast at 85,000 MT, down from an estimated 88,000 MT in 2025. While the overallmilk protein structural surplus is anticipated to slightly decline into 2026, the dairyindustry is expectedto continue its production and export focus away from SMP and MPC and into higher-protein powders,like milk protein isolates3(this last category of protein powders being excluded from USMCA exportsurcharges). Production:Canada maintains a supply management system for milk, in which production quota is allocated on a butterfat basis such that one share of quota isequivalent to the production of 1 kilogram of butterfat perday. The national Canadian Milk Supply Management Committee (CMSMC) sets the total quotavolume based on recommendations from the Canadian Dairy Commission (CDC). The CDC monitorsthe trends in Canadian market requirements for butterfat and recommends milk production adjustmentsto reflect changes in Canadian domestic demand for milk and various dairy products.TheCMSMCapplies the terms of the National Milk Marketing Plan (a federal-provincial agreement) to establish eachprovince’s share of the total production quota. Quota increases and decreases are shared among two regional pools: the Eastern Canadian Milk Pool (orP5), which includes Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Quebec,and Ontario; and theWestern Milk Pool (WMP), which is made up of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and BritishColumbia. Each pool is then responsible for distributing shares of the quota to producers according toprovincial policies and in accordance with pooling agreements. In 2020, for revenue sharin