五大摩擦：绿色转型中释放就业增长的主要劳动力市场障碍（英）2025

FIVE FRICTIONS: KEY LABORMARKET BARRIERS TO © 2025 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Some rights reserved This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressedin this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in theinformation, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes,or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other information Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of theprivileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination ofits knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2025. Five Frictions: Key Labor MarketBarriers to Unlocking Job Growth in the Green Transition. © World Bank.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; TABLE Acronyms 1. Introduction 2. A Framework for Identifying Labor Market Frictions in theGreen Transition 3. Five Labor Market Frictions 3.1 Skill Mismatches133.2 Spatial Mismatches183.3 Temporal Mismatches223.4 Norm Mismatches243.5 Preference Mismatches27 4. Overcoming Labor Market Frictions 5. Discussion and Future Work Acronyms Acknowledgements Thispaper is one of several deliverables prepared under the Whole-of-Economy: Social and Just Transitionproject. It was prepared by a World Bankteamcomprising Camilla Knudsen(Economist),Fernanda Senra de Moura(Consultant), Joris Bücker (Consultant), and Penny Mealy (Senior Economist). Theteam is grateful to Aart Kraay, Alejandro de la Fuente, Elizabeth Ruppert Bulmer,Gabriela Inchauste, Ira Irina Dorband, Jamele Rigolini, Lulit Mitik Beyene, Miki ABSTRACT The labor market is undergoing major changes driven by technological, economic,and demographic factors. Climate change and climate action are contributing tothese shifts, driving growth in some sectors while causing decline in others. Inthe context of the green transition, the overall impact on employment is expectedto be neutral or net positive. However, labor market frictions can hinder workers This paper proposes a framework that classifies labor market frictions along fivedimensions:whatworkers do,whereworkers are,whenworkers are available,who workers are, andwhypeople work. Frictions arise when there is a misalignmentbetween labor supply and labor demand in any of these dimensions. Within theframework, these misalignments are categorized as skill-, spatial-, temporal-,norm-, or preference-related mismatches, respectively. Drawing on insights from EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Today’s labor markets are being transformed by rapidly evolving technologies(suchas artificial intelligence and electrification),structural change fromagriculture to manufacturing and services, and demographic shifts such as youthbulge or population aging. Climate change and policies are further contributing tothese changes, creating winners in some sectors and losers in others. The goodnews? Most projections show that climate action can be a net job creator. The bad So far, most policy attention has focused on ‘green skills’ and reskilling. That isimportant, but not enough; skills gaps are only part of the problem. A broaderset of frictions—shaped not only bywhatworkers can do, but alsowheretheyare,whenthey are available,whothey are, andwhythey work—can limit labormobility. Yet these frictions are often underexplored in policy frameworks andin the economic models used to inform resilient, low-emission development. Although the framework is presented in the contextof the green transition, its relevance extends toany major labor market shock—whether driven byautomation, artificial intelligence, demographics or Based on the five-frictions framework, the papermapspossible interventions to each identifiedbarrier and illustrates them with selected country 1. INTRODUCTION Thegreen transition,characterized by a shifttowardsenvironmentally sustainable practicesand technologies, is reshaping the global economiclandscape.This transition is driving growth incertain sectors, such as renewable energy and Researchindicates that the impact of greentransitionpolicies on employment tends to beneutral or net positive (Godinho 2022; Lehr andPolitt 2024; Hanna et al. 2024). For example, theInternational Labour Organization estimates thatthe green transition in the