2026年香港经济展望——在交汇点重新校准平衡

Thematic Research Macro Economy In-depth Analysis 2026 Hong Kong economic outlook—Recalibrating equilibrium at the convergence 21 November 2025 Cheng Shi,PhD(852) 2683 3231shi.cheng@icbci.com Jessica Xu, PhD(852) 2683 3777jessica.xu@icbci.com In 2026, Hong Kong stands at the strategic confluence of global realignment andChina’sstructural transformation.Amid the global economy’s transitionphase—whereestablishedequilibriadisintegratewhilenewparadigmsemerge—HongKong demonstrates exceptional resilience through institutionalrobustness, fiscal prudence, and deep financial interconnectedness. Sustained netinflowsviaSouthboundinvestmentchannelsandprogressiveRMBinternationalizationunderpin the financial system’s stability despite complexexternal conditions. Policymakers are accelerating economic upgrade, with greenfinance,re-industrialization,and innovation technology emerging as primarygrowth vectors. The Northern Metropolis development injects fresh momentum into Externalshocks:Epicenter of global financial volatility.Hong Kong’s openeconomy exhibits acute sensitivity to global monetary and capital cycles. Under theLinked Exchange Rate System, HKD interest rates maintain high synchronicity withUSD rates, allowing Federal Reserve policy shifts to transmit instantaneously to localfinancial conditions. With the HKD repeatedly testing the strong-side ConvertibilityUndertakingthroughout 2025,the Hong Kong Monetary Authority(HKMA)conductedmultiple market interventions to preserve exchange rate stability,substantiallyboosting market liquidity.Concurrent capital inflows precipitatedsignificant declines across Hibor tenors, demonstrating the ample liquidity bufferswithin Hong Kong’s financial architecture. The HKSAR 2025 Policy Address (the“PolicyAddress”)outlined strategic imperatives to reinforce Hong Kong'sinternational financial centre status through enhanced equity, debt, and currencymarket infrastructure. Key initiatives include integrating RMB trading counters into Simultaneously, global trade conditions remain under pressure. The proliferation ofprotectionism, supply chain realignments, and geopolitical frictions have partiallyconstrained Hong Kong’s intermediate goods and entrepôt trade growth. In 2023, theHKSAR’s total export value contracted 7.8% YoY, extending the preceding year’s the positive territory at 8.7% YoY. In the first nine months of 2025, exports sustainedupward momentum with 13.4% YoY expansion in total value. These changes suggestHong Kong’s trade ecosystem has transitioned from downturn to steady recovery,jointly propelled by resurgent external demand and industrial chain reconfiguration.Notably, structural optimization in services trade is forging new growth pillars.Financial services, professional services, and high-end logisticssectors continueexpandingunder policy guidance.The phased implementation of the Strategic Source: Wind, ICBCI compilation Source: Wind, ICBCI compilation Source: Wind, ICBCI compilation Source: Wind, ICBCI compilation Internal momentum: Institutional stability.Hong Kong’s economy maintainedpositive growth amid complex external conditions, fundamentally attributable torobust institutional framework and reinforced domestic demand. The 2025-26 HongKong SAR Government Budget (the “Budget”) outlines strategies to “consolidate externally“strengthening connectivity with Greater Bay Area cities”to sustainmoderate expansion. In 3Q2025, Hong Kong’s economic recovery continued, withGDP growing 3.8% YoY—accelerating from 1H growth rate. Segmental analysisreveals private consumption rose 2.1% YoY, gross fixed capital formation increased4.3% YoY, and goods exports maintained strong momentum with 12.2% YoY growth.Steadily rising household income and recovering corporate investment confidence are 3.5% YoY in 2026, potentially maintaining around 3% annual expansion through2025-2029—significantly outpacing major advanced economies in Europe and North The institutional deepening of RMB internationalization is infusing Hong Kong as aninternational financial centre with enduring growth momentum. According to HKMAdata, RMB deposits in Hong Kong have surpassed RMB 1tn, providing ampleliquidity for the offshore RMB market. As cross-border capital channel mechanismsbecome increasingly institutionalized, Hong Kong’s pivotal role in RMB asset pricingand settlement architecture continues to strengthen. Over the past decade, MutualMarket Access Schemes have expanded from Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect toinclude Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Bond Connect, and Swap Connect. Thisprogressiveenhancement and deepening of market integration represents aninstitutional milestone in the coordinated development of Chinese mainland and Hong HongKong’s prudent fiscal stance serves as a critical buffer against externaluncertainties. The Budget projects a fiscal deficit of approximately HKD 67bn for the2025/2026 fiscal year, accounting for about 2.0% of GDP – a narrowing from 2.7% in2024. F