小鹏汽车（XPEV US/9868 HK）：业绩符合预期，机器人业务带来积极惊喜

Earnings on track with positive surprise in robot Maintain BUY.We view Xpeng’s 3Q25 earnings as largely in line with slightmiss in vehicle GPM and SG&A.We believe it is well on track to turn profitablein 4Q25. We expect solid sales volume and profit growth to continue in FY26,given new Mona models and EREV variants. We think Xpeng deserves avaluation premium, as its advantages in AD technologies couldhelp it be well Vehicle marginbelow expectationin 3Q25.Xpeng’s 3Q25 revenue was2% lower than our prior forecast.Its GPM in 3Q25 reached all-time high of20.1%, or 2.4ppts higher than our estimates, largely aided by higher-than-expected R&D service income from VW (VOW GR, NR).During the period,vehicle GPMfell 1.2ppts QoQ to 13.1%, lower than our forecast by 0.7ppts.SG&A and R&D expenses combined in 3Q25 were about RMB400mnhigher than our projection, offsetting the beat in gross profit. Net loss of China Auto 4Q25 and FY26 outlook.Management expects a similar level of R&Dservice income in 4Q25 vs. 3Q25, which lays foundation for breakeven in4Q25.We also expect both vehicle ASP and GPM to improve sequentially in 4Q25, aided by the contribution of the redesignedP7. Accordingly, weproject Xpeng to turn profitable in 4Q25 with a net profit of RMB124mn. Weproject FY26 sales volume to be 0.61mn units amid new models and EREVvariants. We project FY26 GPM to widen 0.1pptYoY to 18.7%, aided byabetter product mix and continuous income from VW. We project net profit Humanoid robots could double Xpeng’s revenue in FY30.Xpeng showcased its 7th-generation humanoid robotIronon 5 Nov 2025, whichbecamea key topic during the earnings call.Xpeng targets massproduction of its humanoid robots by the end of 2026 and an annual salesvolume of 1mn units in 2030 with a similar price tag as a car. We are of theview that carmakers could be important players in humanoid robots given Source: FactSet Valuation.We maintain our BUY rating and raise our ADR/Hshare targetprices slightly from US$28.00/HK$110.00 to US$29.00/HK$113.00, stillbased on 1.8x (unchanged) our FY26E P/S. Key risks to our rating andtarget price include lower sales volume and/or GPM than we expect, slower Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered inthis report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressedby that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) coveredin this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any ofthe HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stockwith potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmarkover next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed.This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates,shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whether direct or consequential, incurred in relying on the informatio