固定收益日度市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 We saw sellers on BABA thismorning but the curve recovered to unchanged.JP AT1s like NOMURA recovered 0.3pt. We saw buyers for higher-yieldingLGFV USD issues. CRNAU 29/CQSXGU 28 rose 0.9-1.0pt, while VLLPM Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk SJMHOL:3Q25 underperformed amid theclosure of satellites. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:Broad-based slowdown signals intensifying headwinds.CMBI expects PBOC to further cut LPR by 10bps and RRR by 50bps beforethe end of 1Q26. GDP growth may slow down to 4.5% in 4Q25 with full-yearGDP growth down from 5% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026. See below for Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Last Friday,we saw better buying on the recent CCAMCL 28 and two-wayflows on CCAMCL Float 30 from Chinese AMs. In secondary China IG space,MEITUA/LENOVO curve was 1-3bps wider. TW lifer traded 2-5bps wideramid the headline that CATLIF might launchanew issuance. In Macaugaming, SJMHOL/MGMCHI/STCITY were unchanged to 0.1pt higher, andMPEL/SANLTD/WYNMAC were 0.1pt lower to 0.2pt higher. Seecommentson SJMHOL below. In Chinese properties, FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 27 were upby 0.3-0.5pt. VNKRLE 27-29 were unchanged to 0.5pt lower. In KR IG spacewidened 1-3bps amid balanced two-way flows on HYNMTR/HYUELE curve.InJPspace,wesawbetterbuyingonBank31sFRNsMIZUHO/SUMIBK/MUFG.There were sellers on front-end NTTs whilebuyers on NTT 35s. SOFTBK 32/61/65 were 1.2-3.3pts lower. In AU space,we saw small buying on front-end bank FRNs and better selling on WSTPT2s. In Middle Eastern space, BSFR 35straded two way. Fast money was Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (-0.05%), Dow (-0.65%)and Nasdaq (+0.13%) were mixed on last Friday. UST yield was higheron last Friday. 2/5/10/30 year yield was at 3.62%/3.74%/4.14%/4.74%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 SJMHOL:3Q25 underperformed amid the closure of satellites SJMposted weaker yoy 3Q25 and 9M25 results with market share declined to 11.8% in 3Q25 from 12.3% and13.9% in 2Q25 and 3Q24, respectively. The weaker results were partially attributable to lower rolling hold and In 3Q25, the market share of SJM’s satellites dropped from 5.1% to 3.9%. SJM closed Casino Grandview on31 Jul’25, Casino Emperor Place on 30 Oct’25 and Casino Legend Palace on 12 Nov’25.Subsequent to theclosure of Casino Casa Real on 21 Nov’25, SJM will have 5 remaining satellites.SJM plans to take theoperations of Ponte 16 and L’Arc Macau and will close the other 3 (Casino Fortuna, Casino Kam Pek Paradiseand Casino Landmark) by the end of 2025 as per the agreement with Macau government.The excessstaffcost had been fully absorbed and gaming tables of satellites will be transferred to other properties of SJM. That On a brighter side, we see qoq improvement in SJM’s operating performance as adj. property EBITDA of GLPswung back to HKD111mn in 3Q25 from-HKD66mn in 2Q25. The swing can be partly attributable to the higherrolling hold in 3Q25, increased to 3.8% from 1.9%. Additionally, SJM pays junket commissions based on chipsales.The lower chip sales in 3Q25 compared with those in 2Q25 mean lower commission expenses and As of Sep’25, SJM had cash on hand of HKD3.4bn.Its LTM adj. property EBITDA was HKD3.7bn comparedwith the budgeted capex of HKD2bn in 2025, HKD1.5-1.8bn in 2026 and below HKD1bn in 2027. The budgetedcapex should cover the satellite acquisition costs which we expect to be small. SJM’s cash on hand, undrawnfacilities and operating cash inflow should support a stable financial profile. We are neutral on SJM on valuation. China Economy: Broad-based slowdown signals intensifying headwinds China’s economy showedbroad-based slowdown in Oct, despite no real pressure in meeting the full-yeargrowth target. The property market saw an accelerated price decline, while sharp sales contraction on lastyear’s high base raised the risk of renewed credit stress. Retail sales fell to one-year low and fixed assetinvestment experienced the second biggest contraction since Feb 2020, as softening fiscal expansion and theanti-involution measures weighed on infrastructure and manufacturing investment. GDP growth only needs toreach 4.5% in 4Q to meet the full-year target, but the sharp contraction in property and consumption indicates Property sector remained in deep contraction due to higher base and diminishing stimulus effect.Thecontraction of gross floor area (GFA) sold for commercial building deepened to 6.8% in 10M25 from 5.5% in9M25 according to NBS. Contraction of residential housing start expanded to 19.8% in 10M25 at 359 millionm2, short of the housing sales at 603 million m2 and back to the level in 2003-04, which should support asupply-demand rebalancing in 2027-28. For new housing sales in Nov according to market data, the recoveryrate of 30 major cities compared to 2018-2019 remained at bottom at 37.2% in early Nov, close to the lev