主权人工智能：万亿美元的前沿

EMERGING TECH RESEARCHSovereign AI:The Trillion- PitchBook Data, Inc. Nizar TarhuniExecutive Vice President ofResearch and Market Intelligence Dollar Frontier Paul CondraGlobal Head of PrivateMarkets Research James UlanDirector of EmergingTechnology Research PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Institutional Research Group Analysis Dimitri ZabelinSenior Research Analyst,AI and Cybersecuritydimitri.zabelin@pitchbook.com Executive summary This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the sovereign AI market, a definingtechnological and geopolitical trend of the mid-2020s. We assess that the pursuitof national autonomy in artificial intelligence is no longer a niche policy objectivebut the central pillar of economic and national security strategy for developedand emerging nations alike. This shift is catalyzing a historic, multitrillion-dollarredirection of state-backed capital into the AI technology stack, creating a durable,long-term investment super-cycle. Our analysis indicates that this market is notmonolithic; it is bifurcating into two distinct, competing ecosystems led by the USand China, compelling other nations to make strategic alignment choices that willdictate capital flows and technological standards for the next decade. Data Oscar AllawayData analystOwen WalkerIntern pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com PublishingDesigned byJenna O’Malley The primary driver of this trend is an intensifying global rivalry, compellinggovernments to secure their own computational infrastructure, data, and AImodels to avoid dependency on nondomestic powers. This imperative is creatingunprecedented demand guarantees for companies across the AI value chain. Wehave identified four critical layers for investment: Published on October 27, 2025 Contents Executive summary1Sovereign AI2The infrastructure super-cycle4The geopolitical divide9Regional strategies17Industry intelligence29Macroeconomic and market forces32Investor playbook and outlook33Glossary37 1.Semiconductors, where US export controls are creating a protected market fordomestic Chinese players and a premium for Western-aligned suppliers. 2.Infrastructure, where sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in the Middle Eastand state-backed consortia are underwriting hyperscale datacenter build-outs, de-risking growth for the entire supply chain from power and coolingto interconnects. 3.Foundation models, where capital is concentrating in a few US-based leaderswho are becoming quasi-sovereign entities through deep partnerships withallied nations. 4.Applications, a nascent but high-potential area where sovereign-specific usecases in defense, healthcare, and public services will emerge. For investors, the sovereign AI landscape offers generational opportunities but isfraught with geopolitical risk. The US ecosystem, anchored by legislative supportlike the CHIPS and Science Act and corporate champions like NVIDIA and OpenAI,remains the dominant destination for private capital due to its transparency and innovation leadership. Conversely, China’s state-directed model offers a deep butincreasingly isolated market, with significant opportunities in domestic substitution.The most dynamic near-term growth is emanating from the Middle East, whereSWFs from the United Arab Emirates to Saudi Arabia are deploying tens of billions ofdollars to rapidly build domestic capacity in partnership with US firms. Our key recommendation is to adopt a geopolitically aware investment thesis.Portfolios should seek exposure to the foundational infrastructure layers of theAI stack, as these are the immediate, primary beneficiaries of state spending.Specifically, companies providing enabling technologies for datacenters such asadvanced packaging, optical interconnects, and next-generation cooling, are poisedfor outsized returns. As the market matures, the focus will shift from trainingto inference, creating a second wave of opportunities in specialized hardwareand efficient software. Navigating this complex environment requires a deepunderstanding of the policy levers, national champions, and geopolitical fault linesshaping this new world order in technology. Sovereign AI The geopolitics of AI The concept of sovereign AI has rapidly evolved from a theoretical construct intothe single most powerful force shaping the global technology landscape. At itscore, sovereign AI is a nation’s capacity to independently develop, deploy, andgovern artificial intelligence systems. This entails controlling the entire technologystack, from the silicon upon which models are trained to the data that gives themintelligence and the applications that deliver economic and strategic value. Whatwas once a concern for only the largest geopolitical powers has now becomea strategic imperative for nearly every nation with aspirations of economicrelevance and national security in