PitchBook分析师注：主权人工智能：万亿美元的前沿

EMERGING TECH RESEARCHSovereign AI:The Trillion- PitchBook Data, Inc. Dollar Frontier Nizar TarhuniExecutive Vice President ofResearch and Market IntelligencePaul CondraGlobal Head of PrivateMarkets ResearchJames UlanDirector of EmergingTechnology Research PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, most Institutional Research Group Dimitri ZabelinSenior Research Analyst,AI and Cybersecurity Executive summary This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the sovereign AI market, a definingtechnological and geopolitical trend of the mid-2020s. We assess that the pursuitof national autonomy in artificial intelligence is no longer a niche policy objectivebut the central pillar of economic and national security strategy for developedand emerging nations alike. This shift is catalyzing a historic, multitrillion-dollar Data Oscar AllawayData analyst Owen WalkerIntern pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com PublishingDesigned byJenna O’Malley The primary driver of this trend is an intensifying global rivalry, compellinggovernments to secure their own computational infrastructure, data, and AImodels to avoid dependency on nondomestic powers. This imperative is creating Published on October 27, 2025 Contents Executive summarySovereign AIThe infrastructure super-cycleThe geopolitical divideRegional strategiesIndustry intelligenceMacroeconomic and market forcesInvestor playbook and outlookGlossary 1.Semiconductors, where US export controls are creating a protected market fordomestic Chinese players and a premium for Western-aligned suppliers. 2.Infrastructure, where sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in the Middle Eastand state-backed consortia are underwriting hyperscale datacenter build- 3.Foundation models, where capital is concentrating in a few US-based leaderswho are becoming quasi-sovereign entities through deep partnerships with 4.Applications, a nascent but high-potential area where sovereign-specific use For investors, the sovereign AI landscape offers generational opportunities but isfraught with geopolitical risk. The US ecosystem, anchored by legislative supportlike the CHIPS and Science Act and corporate champions like NVIDIA and OpenAI, innovation leadership. Conversely, China’s state-directed model offers a deep butincreasingly isolated market, with significant opportunities in domestic substitution.The most dynamic near-term growth is emanating from the Middle East, where Our key recommendation is to adopt a geopolitically aware investment thesis.Portfolios should seek exposure to the foundational infrastructure layers of theAI stack, as these are the immediate, primary beneficiaries of state spending.Specifically, companies providing enabling technologies for datacenters such as Sovereign AI The geopolitics of AI The concept of sovereign AI has rapidly evolved from a theoretical construct intothe single most powerful force shaping the global technology landscape. At itscore, sovereign AI is a nation’s capacity to independently develop, deploy, andgovern artificial intelligence systems. This entails controlling the entire technology The primary impetus for this global movement is the recognition that dependenceon nondomestic technology, particularly in a domain as foundational as AI,creates unacceptable strategic vulnerabilities. The intensifying geopolitical rivalry This realization has triggered a wave of state-directed industrial policy and capitalallocation on a scale not seen since the Cold War space race. Governments are nolonger passive observers of technological progress; they are now the largest and This shift has profound implications for private markets. Sovereign AI initiativesfunction as a massive, state-underwritten demand guarantee for the entiretechnology ecosystem. Private markets have benefited from two types of with government to build the core AI infrastructure. Private market players are thenable to create on top of this foundation, thereby strengthening the ecosystem of North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East are the primary regional playersin sovereign AI, with each government leveraging a unique set of policy tools.The three capital vectors are sovereign wealth funds, legislative funding, and This capital is not being deployed speculatively; it is targeted, long-durationinvestment aimed at constructing national champion companies, onshoringcritical supply chains, and building fortress-like data infrastructure. For investors, The impact of this trend ripples through the entire market structure, affecting awide range of stakeholders. For end customers, particularly enterprises in regulatedindustries like finance, healthcare, and defense, sovereign AI means the emergence For technology vendors, the market is bifurcating. Companies must now navigatea complex patchwork of national procurement standards, security protocols, andgeopolitical alignments. Success is no longer determined solely by technological The industry