《巴黎协定》十年：专家对减缓气候变化的进展和挑战的看法

Expert Views onProgress andChallenges forClimate ChangeMitigation The Paris Agreement at TenYears EXPERT VIEWS ON PROGRESS AND CHALLENGESFOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed andarguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Member countries of the OECD. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. ISBN 978-92-64-59974-1 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-62132-9 (PDF)ISBN 978-92-64-69695-2 (HTML) Photo credits:Cover © JeanLucIchard/Shutterstock.com. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found at: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/support/corrigenda.html.© OECD 2025 Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. By using this work, you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Attribution– you must cite the work.Translations– you must cite the original work, identify changes to the original and add the following text:In the event of any discrepancy between the original work and thetranslation, only the text of the original work should be considered valid.Adaptations– you must cite the original work and add the following text:This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed inthis adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its Member countries.Third-party material– the licence does not apply to third-party material in the work. If using such material, you are responsible for obtaining permission from the third party and forany claims of infringement.You must not use the OECD logo, visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OECD endorses your use of the work.Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled by arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) Arbitration Rules 2012. The seat of arbitration shallbe Paris (France). The number of arbitrators shall be one. Preface Thisyear marks the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement. Adopted attheUN Framework Conventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP21 in 2015, the Agreement established a novel framework forinternational climate co-operation that encouraged countries to determine their own commitments toreduce greenhouse gas emissions.This anniversary is an opportunity to reflect on progress made and keychallenges ahead as countries submit the next round of voluntary climate commitments, known asNationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Thisreport explores thequestion:Would the progressmade on climate action over the last 10 years stillhave happened without the Paris Agreement?–through the perspectives of over 250 governmentpolicymakers and climate change experts from more than 60 countries.Drawing ontheglobal surveythatusesscenario-based analysis, the study asks experts to consider how climate action might have evolvedwithout the Agreement. Moreover, the surveyprovides insights onthe current state of climate changemitigation efforts, as these are perceived by experts on policy action. The report presents the most pressingchallenges highlighted by survey respondents, while identifying the key barriers to adopting more ambitiouscommitments and implementing existing pledges. The report also looks ahead by exploring which policiesare perceived as most transformative and which strategies as most effective. Thesurvey respondents clearly and consistently expressed the view that the Paris Agreement hascontributedmeaningfully to strengthening climate policy frameworks,driving higher ambition,andpromotingbroader participation and accountability. In its absence,expert respondents indicate thatclimatechange mitigation would likely be a lower policy priority, mitigation policies would be less developed, andco-ordination across countries on climate changewould alsobe less ambitious andless effective. Yet,achieving the Agreement’s goal of keeping the global temperature increase well below 2°C requiresovercoming persistent challenges.Sound policy frameworks, technological innovation and behaviouralchange all have roles to play, but their effectiveness hinges oncontinued ambition and sustainedinvestment. With the world entering a new cycle of NDC updates, the insights from this study contribute tocontinuingthe momentum of the Paris Agreement and to informing the next phase of climate action. By documentingexpert perspectives on what has been achieved, what might not have been achieved without the ParisAgreement, and what remains to be done, this report providesnew insights to guidefuture climate action. Foreword This report presents the findings of an