就业趋势预测：考虑人口和劳动力市场结构及其启示

June17,2025 ProjectionofEmploymentTrends:ConsideringPopulationandLaborMarketStructure,andItsImplications YounghoLee*·GanghuiJeong**·ByunghoSong*** ①Generally,when assessing economic conditions,a growth rate above the potentialgrowthrate is considered an economic boom,while a rate below it is regarded as arecession.When assessing labor market conditions based on employment growth,istherea comparable benchmark for assessing the strength of employment conditions?Centralbanks in major countries estimate“trend job growth”and use this benchmarktoassess whether current employment conditions are strong or weak.That is,if theincreasein employment exceeds estimated trend job growth,employment conditionsareassessed as favorable;and if it falls short of trend job growth,employmentconditionsare seen as unfavorable.Trend job growth refers to the increase inemploymentconsistent with maintaining the unemployment rate at its natural level.Itisdetermined by labor supply factors,including the growth rate of the populationaged15 or older,labor force participation rate,and natural rate of unemployment.Trendjob growth tends to rise as the population growth rate and labor forceparticipationrateincrease,and as the natural rate ofunemployment decreases. ②ThispaperestimatestrendjobgrowthforSouth Koreaandusesitasa benchmarktoevaluaterecent labor market conditions.It also projects the long-term slowdown intrendjobgrowthandevaluatestheeconomicimpactofthisdeceleration. ③South Korea’s trend job growth declined from about 400,000 persons per year during2011-2015to 190,000 per year in 2016-2019.Following the pandemic,trend jobgrowthrebounded to an average of 320,000 per year during 2021-2024.While thedecliningpopulation growth rate—driven by low fertility—has exerted underlyingdownwardpressure on trend job growth,the sharp drop in trend job growth to abouthalfthe level seen in 2011-2015 during 2016-2019 was also influenced by a decline in themale labor force participation rate.This decline was linked to a reduction inmedium-and low-skilled jobs due to technological advancements and a deepeningmismatchbetween available jobs and workers’skills.However,increases in the laborforceparticipation rate among women and older individuals since the pandemic,drivenby the expansion of flexible work arrangements and growth in service sectoremployment,have partially offset the downward pressure on trend job growth.Thisyear,trend job growth is estimated to be in the upper 100-thousand range,reflectingamoderation of the previously upward trend of the labor force participation rate.Giventhat the actual number of employed persons in the first half of this year(Januaryto May)has fallen slightly below the estimated trend,and with employmentgrowthexpected to slow further in the second half,the overall employment situationforthisyearisassessedasmoderatelyweakerthantrend. ④On a long-term horizon,trend job growth is projected to slow gradually and start todeclinearound 2030.This is primarily due to the anticipated decrease in thepopulationaged 15 or older beginning in 2033,as well as a projected decline in thelaborforce participation rate—which had previously been trending upward—fromaround2030.A negative trend job growth implies that even if the economy continuestogrow at its potential rate,the actual number of employed persons would begin toshrink.Following the initial fall,total employment is projected to keep contracting,reachingabout90%ofits2024levelby2050. ⑤Astrendjob growth shrinksdue to population decline,theKoreaneconomy mayfacesignificantchallenges.From around 2030,as trend job growth starts to decline,laborinputis expected to exert downward pressure on GDP growth.Even if overalleconomicgrowth stalls due to a shrinking population,individual welfare could stillimproveif per capita GDP rises.However,from around 2030,as the labor forceparticipationrate begins to decline due to population aging,per capita GDP growthrateis expected to come under significant structural downward pressure.The reasonforthis is as follows:When other factors such as productivity remain constant,the percapitaGDP growth rate is determined by the difference between employment andpopulationgrowth.As the share of the elderly population—which has a low laborforceparticipation rate—increases,the employment tends to decline at a faster ratethanthe overall population.Ifother conditions—such as thegrosspensionreplacementrate—remain unchanged,expenditure on pensions and health as apercentageof GDP is projected to rise sharply,from around 10%in 2025 toapproximately20%by 2050,due to population aging and declining labor forceparticipation.This will result in a significant increase in the support burden onhouseholdsandtheeconomy. ⑥To mitigate the negative impact of slowing trend job growth caused by populationdeclineand aging,it is essential to boost productivity and increase the labor forceparticipationrate through comprehensive economic restructuring.To raise labor forceparticipation,s