中国材料月度追踪：供应中断利好铝，建筑材料旺季艰难

China Materials Monthly Tracker Preferaluminiumon supply disruptions, tough peak season for construction materials China ◆Our monthly product highlights key industry events and high-frequency data along the value chains ofcommodity sectors, including copper, aluminium, gold, lithium, steel, cement, glass and paper Howard Lau*, CFAAnalyst, China MaterialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimitedhoward.h.b.lau@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6625 ◆Resilient metals demandin the peak season; alumiunum prices boosted by supply disruption; China’s headlinepolicy meetingindicatedcontinuedsupport on new energy and new materials; record high gold fund inflows ◆Wemost preferaluminumamong China materials, but we are constructive on construction materials on alonger-termoutlookdespite lukewarm demand during traditional peak season Jonathan Brandt, CFAAnalyst, GEMs ex-Asia Metals & Mining, Pulp &PaperHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.jon.brandt@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4499 China's 15th five-year plan implications on China Materials:The 15th five-year plan (FYP) emphasised the upgrade and modernisation of traditionalindustries and accelerating developments in new sectors, including newenergy and new materials, among others. In the press conference, “anti-involution” measures were explicitly stated, suggesting policy guidance totackle excess supply and boost demand will likely be accelerated(seeChina Macro Tracker: Potential trade breakthroughs, 29 October 2025). Metals’ demand held up well, so far, despite challenges, and uncertainoutlook continues:There have been a variety of factors impacting both thedemand and supply sides of the metal markets this year. Through this volatility,demand for metals has been resilient, primarily driven by the front-loading ofshipments to the US and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector,EVs, AI data centres, etc. However, expectations of a slowdown in global trade,weakness in domestic consumption,theimpact of policy changes on EV sales,and the executionpaceoftheanti-involution campaign in Chinaall createuncertainty. We have recently adjusted our price forecasts for most metals toaccount for the recent volatility and reflect current market fundamentals. Copperandcobalt receivedthe biggestupgrade given the significant supply disruptions(seeMetals Quarterly Q4 2025,15 October 2025). Shilan Modi*, CFAAnalyst, Metals & MiningHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCshilan.modi@hsbc.com+971 564 1212 04 Pinakin Parekh*Analyst, India Metals and CementHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India)Private Limitedpinakin.parekh@hsbc.co.in+91 22 40891549 Gold ETF inflow rose to record high in October:Gold fund weekly inflowstouched a record high of USD8.7bn (week ending 22nd October) andUSD50bn in the past fourmonths (source: EPFR), leading gold to rallytowards a new high on 20October. However, gold prices moderated tobelow USD4,000/t, down 10% in the past week, which we attribute to profitbooking. The gold rally is likely to be sustained through 1H’26 by geopoliticalrisks, economic policy uncertainty, and rising public debt. HSBC’s PreciousMetals Analyst forecasts USD 4,600/oz by end-2025 anda potential highnear USD5,000/oz in 1H26.(SeeGold update,8October 2025). Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited Supply disruptionsprovide furtherstrengthto Aluminium:Aluminiumprices are up 8% month-on-month on the LME, driven by robust demand andsupply disruptions. Century Aluminum’s Nordural Grundartangi smelter inIceland (320kt capacity; 0.4% global supply) faces partial output disruption dueto equipment failure.In addition, South32’s Mozal smelter in Mozambique(355kt; 0.5% global supply) risks power supply disruptions from 2026 afterfailing to secure a long-term electricity contract. These disruptions, combinedwith China’s 45mt production ceiling, low inventories, strong grid investment,and EV demand, support a constructive aluminium outlook. 3 November 2025 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations View HSBC GlobalResearch at:https://www.research.hsbc.com What to buy in the HK/mainland China materials space?We preferaluminiumamong China materials;given the supply disruptions andChina’s 45mt production ceiling.Wealsolikethe longer-term outlook forconstruction materials, butfurtherare-ratingis likely to hinge on theexecution of supply-side reform and the pace of earnings improvement. Click to viewBulls on the march| The 21stedition of the EM Sentiment Survey Commodity prices HSBC metals price estimates Source: LSEG Datastream, HSBC estimates Comps table (Materials coverage) Comps table(cont’d) Copper ◆Amidst the supply disruptions and peak season demand in China, LMEcopperpricesincreasedfurtherin October to USD11,000/t now, up 5%m-o-m following a 4% growth in September;supply disruptions continue to impact the copper market. Over the past three months, supply issueshave hit El Tenien