: 中国材料月度追踪：: 市场情绪改善稳定基本金属价格

with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Potential bauxite supply disruptions in Guinea pose upside risk tobauxite and alumina prices:According to SMM (17 May 2025),Guinea plans to revoke 51 mining licenses, include bauxite, gold,diamond, graphite and iron ore, reportedly affecting Emirates GlobalAluminium (EGA), which operates one of the country's largest bauxitemining operations. Earlier, in Oct’24, Guinea had suspended EGA’sbauxite operations. AsEGAaccounts for over 10% ofGuinea’s totalbauxite exports, a potential revocation ofalicence is likely to lift pricesacrossthealuminium value chain, in our view,reflectingthe samesupply concernwe hadlast year.However, record-high solarinstallation YTD due to policy push has now endedthenear-termdemand risk to aluminum.Cement supplylikelyto remain disciplined amidst weak prices:Amongst the construction materials, cement showedthehighest levelof supply disciplinein recentyears, amidst the weak demandconditions. In 2021-2024, cement supply fell by c23% and remaineddisciplined into 2025YTD. In April’25, cement output fell c5% y-o-yandYTD outputis downc3% y-o-y.However, since April’25, cement pricesdeclined due to persistently weak demand and loosening output controlin some regions. For 2Q25, we expect pricing pressure to intensifyfurther as the rainy season began in May, affecting demand. However,we expectfull-year cement pricesto stay above last year’s level,supported by industry-wide consensus on production discipline.US-China trade talks improve market sentiment, stabilizing basemetal prices, but uncertainties persist:On 12May, the US and Chinaagreed to a 90-day pause on trade escalations, with the UScutting tariffsto 30% from 145%, and China to 10% from 125%, resulting in a marginalimprovement in market sentiment. This has contributed to a stabilization inbase metal prices, notably aluminium and copper, as well as a gold prices,whichmoderated from historicalhighsas trade-related safe-havendemand eases. Looking forward, we expect aluminium and copper pricesto remain wellsupported given lower inventory and robust demand inChina.During the 90-day US-China tariff truce, weanticipatea surge inChinese manufacturing activity and exports as companies seek tocapitalize on the lower tariff rates,thereby supportingmetal consumption.We also expect gold to remain wellsupported, given the uncertaintiessurrounding global economic growth, trade dynamics, and sustainedcentral bank buying activity.What to buy in the HK/China materials space?We prefer copperand goldamong China materials.We are constructive on copper, aspotential new stimulus could bolster demand, and supply constraintsremain a concern, as evidenced by negative spot TC/RC prices.Wealsoreiterate our positive stance on gold, supported bythe existingglobal uncertainties and sustained central bank demand.◆Our monthly product highlights key industry events and high-frequency data along the value chains ofcommodity sectors, including copper, aluminium,gold,lithium, steel, cement, glass, and paper◆US-China tradetalks improve marketsentiment, stabilizing base metal prices while gold stays rangebound aftermoderating from historicalhighs;as tarifftensions remain atcentre stage,we expect uncertainty to prevail inthenearterm, clouding themetalsoutlook;we prefercopperand goldamongChina materialsChina Materials Monthly TrackerImproved market sentiment stabilze base metal prices Find out more Commodity priceExhibit 1:Commodity prices trendCategoryNamePrice________________%Change__________________USD/tCopperShanghai Copper Spot10,858LME Copper Spot9,516AluminiumShanghai Aluminium Spot2,830LME Aluminium Spot2,448China QHD Thermal Coal85Australia Thermal Coal Forward133LithiumChina Lithium Carbonate8,678China Lithium Hydroxide8,956Asia Lithium Hydroxide CIF Swap8,825Asia Lithium Carbonate CIF Swap8,750South America Lithium Carbonate FOB Swap9,785China Spodumene 6% min CIF640Australia Spodumene 6% FOB779CobaltShanghai Cobalt Spot33,185LME Cobalt Spot33,269GoldGold Spot (USD/oz)3,326Source: Bloomberg, Wind, Digital Cement, Paper.com, HSBC. Pricingas at close on 23 May2025 HSBC metals price estimatesExhibit 2: HSBC commodity pricesUnit2023y-o-y2024y-o-y2025ey-o-yBase metalsAluminumUSD/lb1.02-17%1.107%1.122%CopperUSD/lb3.85-4%4.158%4.08-2%ZincUSD/lb1.20-24%1.265%1.292%Battery raw materialsNickelUSD/lb9.75-18%7.63-22%6.85-10%ManganeseUSD/dmtu4.80-20%5.5415%4.83-13%CobaltUSD/lb15.54-46%11.95-23%12.787%Lithium-China BG LCE 99.5%USD/kg35.9-49%12.6-65%10.1-20%Bulks and OthersIron ore Fines (CIF)USD/t120.5-1%109.8-9%96.7-12%Hot Rolled Coil (China ex VAT)USD/t501-15%450-10%411-9%Hot Rolled Coil (Europe)USD/t786-21%698-11%659-6%Hot Rolled Coil (US)USD/t995-12%853-14%9147%Hard Coking CoalUSD/t291-22%253-13%190-25%Thermal Coal-spotUSD/t175-51%136-23%104-23%Thermal Coal-ChinaRMB/t970-25%854-12%700-18%Precious MetalsGoldUSD/oz1,9438%2,38723%3,01526%PlatinumUSD/oz9671%955-1%1,0308%PalladiumUSD/oz1,339-37%983-27%978-1%RhodiumUSD/oz6,630-57%4,633-