韩国央行-近期经济发展（2025年10月）

PRESS RELEASE Research Department & Recent Economic Developments Summary Recent Economic DevelopmentsOct 2025 Korea's economic growth will likely remain broadly in line with the Augustoutlook of0.9% this year, as consumption and exports remain on a favorabletrenddespite sluggish construction investment.Next year,the recovery is CPI inflation is projected to hover around 2%,reflecting low demand-sidepressuresand stable global oil prices despite the recent Korean won's The forecast path is subject to considerable uncertainty regarding factors such asKorea-U.S. and U.S.-China trade negotiations, as well as semiconductor cycle. EconomicEconomicEconomicConditionsConditionsConditions Ⅰ.Ⅰ.GlobalGlobalGlobal▢The global economy is expected to face increasing headwinds from U.S. tariffs amidpersistent uncertainties,including signs of reigniting U.S.-China tradetensions. However, slowdown in growth will likely be moderate, supported by §TheUnited States economy is projected to grow below its potential rate due to §Inthe Euro area,growth is forecast to improve due to accommodative financialconditions and fiscal stimulus by major economies. The pace of recovery, however, is §InChina, growth is expected to be in line with the previous forecast, supported bydomestic stimulus measures and export diversification that cushion the impact of U.S. Ⅱ.Developments in Korea’s EconomyDevelopments in Korea’s EconomyDevelopments in Korea’s Economy Ⅱ.Ⅱ. ▢Korea's economy continues to demonstrate favorable trends in consumptionandexports despite sluggish construction investment.However,exports areprojectedto gradually slow as the impact of U.S.tariffs intensifies toward §The quarterlygrowth path is also expected to remain broadly in line with thepreviousforecast.In the third quarter,construction investment was sluggishowingto delays stemming from accidents at construction sites.Nevertheless, §Inthe fourth quarter, growth is projected to moderate as exports slow due tothe increasing impact of U.S. tariffs, although the recovery in domestic demand §Next year, growth is expected to strengthen compared with this year, driven bydomesticdemand with support from earlier interest rate cuts and fiscal Source: Korea Customs Service. ▢CPI inflation is expected to hover around the 2% target for both this year andnext, broadly in line with previous projections of 2.0% and 1.9%, respectively. §Lookingat recent inflation trends,both headline and core CPI inflation in Augustdeclined sharply to 1.7% and 1.3%, respectively, due to a temporary telecommunicationsfeediscount.However,in September,as this effect dissipated,both indicators §Going forward,CPI inflationis projected to remain around 2% for the time being, asrecentlyelevated agricultural and marine prices gradually stabilize with improvedweatherconditions.However,volatility in exchange rates and oil prices has Note: 1) Excluding core itemsSources: Ministry of Data and Statistics, Bank of Korea. ▢The current account surplus is expected to exceed the previous outlook for boththis year and next, which had forecast surpluses of about $110 billion and $85 §The goods balance is projected to post large surpluses over this year and next,supported by robust semiconductor market conditions despite the impact of U.S. tariffs.* *Exports of steel, automobiles (including parts) to the U.S. have slowed recently due to hightariffrates.Notably,automobiles face tariffs of 25%that exceed those applied to §Theservices account deficit is expected to narrow, driven by the travel balance as ▢The increase in the number of employed persons is expected to remain broadlyin line with previous projections for both this year and next, at +170,000 and §Employment in construction and manufacturing is expected to underperformexpectations due to delayed recovery in construction and the impact of U.S. tariffs.However,employment in service sector is projected to see modest acceleration §Nextyear,total employment is projected to increase at a slower pace due todemographic factors, but employment in the private sector is expected to improve