巴克莱_美国_信用_阿尔法_ 剧本继续

The show goes on This week, we analyze fundamental trends in middle-marketdirect lending, discuss the macro implications of newinsurance solvency rules in Japan, highlight our 2026 rising BradleyRogoff,CFA+1 212 412 7921bradley.rogoff@barclays.com Dominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.com US Credit Alpha Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Private credit is capturing investors' attention, but systemic concerns are still contained. Inpublic markets, we remain constructive into year-end barring a macro shock, as technicals are US Focus Private credit and BDCs: Taking fundamental cues amid uncertainty. . . 5 Given elevated uncertainty about private credit and BDCs, we analyze fundamental trendswithin the middle-market direct lending landscape. US Focus Macro implications of new insurance solvency rules in Japan. . . . . . . . 15 Upcoming ESR regulation for Japan's life insurers has driven changes in their portfolioinvestment and capital management, includingoffshorereinsurance utilization. The currentregulatory backdrop suggests their superlong JGB demand remains capped despite higher US Investment Grade and High Yield Rising star and fallen angel 2026 outlook: Breathing life into the HYmarket. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Fallen angels are outpacing rising stars in 2025, largely driven by a few idiosyncratic situations.In 2026, we expect this trend to accelerate, with $70-90bn of fallen angels, driven once again by Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 43.Completed: 23-Oct-25, 21:30 GMTReleased: 24-Oct-25, 10:30 GMT US Credit Derivatives and Macro Buy HYG and buy CDX.HY protection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39We recommend going long HYG and buying CDX.HY protection to position for a reversal of the US Credit Alpha Overview Private credit is capturing investors' attention, but systemicconcerns are still contained. In public markets, we remainconstructive into year-end barring a macro shock, astechnicals are supportive, the Fed is cutting, and earnings BradleyRogoff,CFA+1 212 412 7921bradley.rogoff@barclays.com Dominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.com The show goes on Credit spreads were moderatelysofterw/w.Investment grade cash widened 2bp (October15-22), to 79bp, which is the recent wide, while high yield widened 9bp, to 291bp, in line with itsbeta versus IG butoffthe 304bp wide reached two weeks ago. Locally, the decline in long-endTreasury yields likely put some pressure on investment grade spreads, as the IG all-in yield is But recent spread moves have created some interesting dislocations.For instance, webelieve that HYG is now trading too wide to CDX.HY. We are looking for a mean reversion to theirrelationship over the past year, as HYG is now trading 26bp/three standard deviations too wide. The overall view from investors is that spreads will remain tight or tighten more in thenear term. Investors who we've spoken with in the past couple of weeks expect technicals todominate, with robust inflows continuing. This is corroborated by the mutual fund and ETF flowdata for investment grade, which has had 25 consecutive weeks of inflows, the longest streaksince 2021, with more than $3bn this week alone. However, high yield and leveraged loan That constructive view is supported by the strength of 3Q earnings so far.About 25% of theSP500 has reported so far, and 86% of those companies have beaten EPS estimates, the mostsince 2Q21. The blended 3Q earnings growth rate is 8.5% y/y, led by tech and financials, and theoverall earnings picture is supportive for credit. But market participants are trying to gauge potential issues in the private credit markets.So far, the issues appear to be idiosyncratic, not systemic, and we agree.The focus is onhow much bad risk is out there and who is holding it. Lower transparency in theaffectedmarkets makes itdifficultto assess the severity of the situation. However, our analysis of BDCs The Fed is expected to both cut and guide to more cuts next week.Markets are pricing in a99% chance of a 25bp cut next week and a 90% chance of another cut in December. The Fed isexpected to remain dovish in response to asofteninglabor market. Fed cuts are supportive for No surprise expected for CPI.Friday’s CPI print is set to be the last major data point before theFed meets. Consensus expects headline and core inflation to remain roughly unchanged month-over-month (0.4% and 0.3%, respectively). Barclays expects