锌月报：供应压力缓解 锌价重心上抬

供应压力缓解锌价重心上抬 核心观点及策略 要点要点要点宏观面看，中美达成阶段性协议，美联储10月降息靴子落地，均符合市场预期，但12月降息不确定性上升，市场情绪或有反复。国内经济复苏节奏放缓，温和政策出台仍可期。四中全会落地与“十五五”规划建设意见发布，为市场注入中长期信心。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 李婷从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 供应端，北方矿山进入季节性生产淡季，叠加炼厂冬储需求增加，内外加工费同步下调，成本端支撑增强。同时，原料库存收紧及利润回落导致部分炼厂压缩产量，精炼锌月度供应预计环比小幅减少，叠加锌锭出口预期支撑下，供应端压力边际放缓。 黄蕾从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 需求端，终端消费表现平淡，基建及地产增速承压，汽车延续向好态势，家电消费保有韧性，光伏增速降幅收窄，风光领域消费强劲，镀锌板出口存边际回落预期。进入11月，消费进入淡旺季过渡阶段，终端提振有限的背景下，初端企业开工预计温和回落。 王工建从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 整体来看，宏观重要事件落地后，市场转向基本面。11月供需双弱，加工费下调强化成本支撑，同时精炼锌环比下滑及锌锭出口，缓解高供应压力，需求虽然边际转弱但韧性尚存。叠加伦锌低库存强结构的格局短时难逆转，将持续支撑锌市，预计11月锌价重心上移。 赵凯熙从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天从业资格号：F03120615投资咨询号：Z0022965 风险因素：宏观风险，供应超预期 焦鹏飞从业资格号：F03122184投资咨询号：Z0023260 目录 一、锌市场行情回顾.........................................................4二、宏观面.................................................................42.1美国方面...................................................................................................................................42.2欧元区方面...............................................................................................................................52.3国内方面..................................................................................................................................5三、锌基本面分析...........................................................73.1锌矿供应情况...........................................................................................................................73.1.1全球锌精矿供应如期恢复...................................................................................................73.1.2内外加工费调整，锌矿进口保持高水平...........................................................................93.2精炼锌供应情况.....................................................................................................................103.2.1海外炼厂提产预期增加，国内维持高供应.....................................................................103.2.2 1 11月精炼锌月度产量维持高位，锌锭出口预期增加................................................113.3精炼锌需求情况.....................................................................................................................133.3.1欧美终端消费边际回暖，持续性尚待观察......................................................................133.3.2初端企业开工表现偏弱，镀锌出口韧性尚存...............................................................143.3.3传统消费表现疲软，新兴消费表现分化.........................................................................153.4内外库存分化..........................................................18四、总结与后市展望........................................................19 图表目录 图表1沪锌主连及LME三月期锌走势.................................................................................4图表2美国通胀情况................................................................................................................6图表3美国利率水平................................................................................................................6图表4美国就业市场.................................................................................................................6图表5美国ISM制造业PMI...................................................................................................6图表6欧元区通胀情况............................................................................................................7图表7欧元区利率水平............................................................................................................7图表8国内PMI数据................................................................................................................7图表9国内重要经济指标........................................................................................................7图表10全球锌矿月度产量情况..............................................................................................8图表11国内锌矿月度产量情况..............................................................................................8图表12 2025年海外锌矿产量增减情况（万吨）..................................................................8图表13 2025年国内锌矿新增情况（万吨）..........................................................................9图表14内外加工费分化..........................................................................................................9图表15锌矿进口盈亏..............................................................................................................9图表16锌矿进口情况............................................................................................................10图表17冶炼厂原料库存天数................................................................................................10图表18全球精炼锌月度产量情况........................................................................................11图表19 2024-2025年海外炼厂事件汇总（万吨）...............................................................11图表20国内精炼锌月度产量................................................................................................12图表21冶炼厂生产利润........................................................................................................12图表22精炼锌净进口情况..................................