铅月报：需求渐回暖 铅价重心上抬

需求渐回暖 铅价重心上抬 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 宏观面看，美国通胀回落受阻且经济保有韧性，市场进一步下调美联储年内首次降息节点，美元偏强压制金属走势，国内政策定调积极，市场等待更多刺激政策。 李婷021-68556855li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 基本面来看，北方矿山尚未完全恢复且铅矿进口窗口关闭，国内铅矿延续偏紧，加工费维持低位。废旧电瓶延续供不应求，叠加国内极端天气影响运输，价格止跌企稳，后期易涨难跌。原生铅及再生铅检修企业逐步复产，而利润不佳影响再生铅复产节奏，供应缓慢恢复。 黄蕾021-68556855huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 需求端来看，LME库存攀升至近八年高位，凸显海外需求仍弱。国内下游铅蓄电池企业恢复偏慢，且优先消化厂库，关注后期开学季带动的需求回暖情况，终端消费喜忧参半，汽车及电动车高保有量托底，储能需求提供边际支撑。 高慧021-68556855gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 总的来看，宏观较稳健，未有新增风险点。内外库存均处较高水平，对铅价形成压力。不过铅矿及废旧电瓶供应紧张格局难扭转，成本端支撑仍能托底铅价。后期伴随着消费改善，有望转去库，铅价重心或上抬，预计沪铅主要运行区间在15800-16500元/吨。 王工建021-68556855wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 策略建：逢低做多 风险因素：海外挤仓，国内供应扰动超预期 目录 一、铅市行情回顾...........................................................4二、铅基本面分析...........................................................42.1铅矿供应情况.............................................................42.1.1全球铅矿供应温和增长，原料维持紧张格局.................................42.1.2内外铅矿加工费弱稳，仍需进口货源补充..................................52.2精炼铅供应情况...........................................................62.2.1海外炼厂复产，供应边际改善............................................62.2.2春节长假影响，原生铅产量延续环比回落..................................72.2.3废旧电瓶价格企稳，再生铅产量环比减少..................................82.3精炼铅需求情况..........................................................92.3.1全球精炼铅需求情况.....................................................92.3.2铅蓄电池开工率季节性回落，后期关注开学季消费提振.....................102.3.2 .1精炼铅及铅蓄电池出口环比均增加.....................................102.3.2 .2终端消费有韧性.....................................................112.4内外库存同步增加........................................................13三、总结与后市展望........................................................13 图表目录 图表1沪铅主连及LME三月期铅走势..................................................................................4图表2全球铅矿月度产量情况.................................................................................................5图表3国内铅矿产量情况........................................................................................................5图表4内外铅矿加工费情况....................................................................................................5图表5铅矿进口盈亏情况........................................................................................................5图表6铅矿进口情况................................................................................................................6图表7银精矿进口情况............................................................................................................6图表8全球精炼铅月度产量....................................................................................................6图表9 2024年海外炼厂产量变化情况（万吨）....................................................................7图表10原生铅产量情况..........................................................................................................7图表11原生铅炼厂开工率......................................................................................................7图表12 2024年国内原生铅新扩建产能（万吨）..................................................................8图表13再生铅产量情况..........................................................................................................8图表14再生铅企业开工率......................................................................................................8图表15废电池价格企稳回升..................................................................................................9图表16再生铅企业利润情况..................................................................................................9图表17全球精炼铅月度需求情况..........................................................................................9图表18全球精炼铅月度供需缺口情况..................................................................................9图表19美国汽车销量情况....................................................................................................10图表20欧元区汽车销量情况................................................................................................10图表21铅蓄电池周度开工率情况........................................................................................11图表22铅蓄电池出口情况....................................................................................................11图表23精炼铅出口情况........................................................................................................11图表24精炼铅出口盈亏情况................................................................................................11图表25铅酸蓄电池终端消费占比........................................................................................12图表26汽车产量情况............................................................................................................12图表27汽车保有量................................................................................................................12图表28电动自行车保有量....................................................................................................12图表29电动车产量情况......................................................................