3q25受智能手机部件拖累；对2026年折叠屏/汽车/人工智能服务器持乐观态度

3Q25dragged bysmartphonecomponents;Positive onfoldable/auto/AI serversin 2026 Target PriceHK$43.54(PreviousTPHK$47.37)Up/Downside16.4%Current PriceHK$37.42 BYDE reported in-line 3Q25 revenuebut earningsweredragged by weaker smartphonecomponents(iPhone casing),new intelligent productrevenuedeclineand lower GPM,while NEVbizmaintainedstable growth.Duringinvestor call,mgmt. guided flattishrevenue/GPM in 4Q25E due to iPhone component drag and AI serverprojectdelay,andexpectedstronger revenue growth in 2026 driven by component upgrade (foldablephone),new smart home product launch,NEV high-end products ramp-up andAI serverproject shipment(liquid cooling, HVDC, power).We lowerour FY25-27E EPS by8-14%to factor in 3Q resultsand CE mix impact, and weremain positive onBYDE’s growthopportunities inNEV/AI server growth in FY26-27E.Our new SOTP-based TP ofHK$43.54implies16.2xFY26E P/E.Maintain BUY. China Technology Alex NG(852) 3900 0881alexng@cmbi.com.hk 3Q revenue in-linebut earnings dragged by margins;Expectstablerev/GPMYoYin 4Q25E.BYDE’s3Q revenue decline of 2% YoY was largely in-linewith ourestimate,while net profit(-9% YoY)wasdraggedbyiPhone casing spec changesandmajor customer’sshipment delayto 4Q.For4Q25E/FY25E,mgmt.guided 1)flattish4Qrevenue thanks to stable product mix and customer mix; 2)stableGPMYoYon seasonality andsmartphone componentramp; 3)FY25ENEVrevenueofRMB25bn(vs. prior RMB30-35bn)given weaker shipmentdespitecontent increase;and4)AI server components’multiple client wins and revenue contribution in1Q26E. Hanqing LIlihanqing@cmbi.com.hk 2026 outlook:foldable iPhone, NEV productpenetration, AI servers (liquidcooling, HVDC, power).Lookingahead to2026, mgmt. is positive on1)consumerelectronics: content value increase for foldable iPhone,stable Androidhigh-endcomponents andnew smart home product launch;2)NEV:rising penetration ofhigh-endsuspension products,thermal management products’ramp-up and clientexpansion toEurope and Japan;3)AI servers: GB200/GB300 projects (liquidcooling, power, rack) to start shipmentin 1Q26E,Rubinprojects and HGX liquidcoolingcomponentsto startmass production in 2H26E,HVDC ordersto deliverin2H26E, and400G/800G optical modulecapacity readyforshipment. Overall,mgmt.expects GPMrecoveryin 2026 driven byramp-up ofhigher-marginsmartphonecomponents, NEV components and AIservercomponentproducts. Expect 2025 to be a transitional year;Reiterate BUYonmultiple growth driversin 2026.Wehavelowered our FY25-27E EPS by8-14% to factor in 3Qresults,slowerconsumer electronics and lower GPM.Our new SOTP-based TP ofHK$43.54implies16.2xFY26E P/E.Trading at 12.9x FY26E P/E, the stock offersattractive risk/reward in our view.Upcoming catalysts include iPhoneshipmentupside,AI server products'client wins/shipment,roboticsbreakthroughand GPMimprovement. Related reports: 2Q25 upbeat; Multiple growth drivers infoldable iPhone, auto and AI server(liquid cooling, power, 800G/1.6G/CPO)(link) Takeaways from mgmt. visit: Apple orderwin, auto rapid ramp and AI server bizexpansion (link) 1Q25 earnings flat YoY; 2025 positiveoutlook backed by auto/AI and limitedtariff impact-29 Apr 2025 (link) 4Q24 earnings dragged by one-offexpenses; auto/AI/Apple ramp to drivegrowth in 2025-26 Mar 2025(link) 3Q25results review Earnings revision Valuation Maintain BUY with new SOTP-based TP of HK$43.54 We maintain our positive view on BYDE’s outlook in FY26E and expect improving revenuemix will continue to drive GPM recovery in FY26E. We maintain BUY andour TPisbasedon SOTP valuation toreflect BYDE’s business diversification with different growth profilesand visibility. Ournew SOTP-basedTP of HK$43.54implies 16.2x FY26E P/E. We assignthesame setof P/E multiples:15x P/E to its assembly EMS business,15x for iPhone casing and15xP/E for component business, given Android’s business margin recovery and Apple’sbusiness expansion. WeassignatargetP/Emultipleof16xfornew intelligentand18x forNEV segments to reflect their growth potential and higher earnings visibility. Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGMestimates Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGMestimates Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in thisreport: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered inthis research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this