黄金需求趋势：2025年第三季度

Gold sets new records in Q3 Highlights Demand rises to a new high in tandem with the price The LBMA (PM)gold pricehit13 new all-time highs in thequarter.The price rose 16% during Q3and generated an averagequarterly price ofUS$3456.54/oz, up 40% y/y and5% q/q. Total gold demand, including OTC, grew 3% y/y to 1,313t, the highest quarterlytotal in our data series. Yet this was eclipsed by the value measure of demand,which jumped 44% y/y to a record of US$146bn in Q3. Year-to-date demand is 1% higher at 3,717t, equating to US$384bn in value, up41% y/y. Investors remained firmly in the driving seat in Q3. Huge ETF buying (+222t),accompanied by a fourth successive quarter of bar and coin demand above 300t(316t) fuelled the rise in overall demand. Total gold supplyrose3% y/yto a quarterly record of1,313t.Mine production, which typicallysees seasonal growth in Q3, wasup 2% y/y to 977t. Central bank buying remained elevated at 220t, 28% up on the prior quarter,albeit that y-t-d buying of 634t has been at a slower pace than the 724t boughtin the first three quarters of last year. Jewellery consumption in Q3 posted a double-digit y/y decline (the sixth insuccession) to 371t, as volumes remained under pressure in the record priceenvironment. This contrasts with a 13% y/y increase in value to US$41bn. The supply of recycled goldremained elevated but stableat 344t: up 6% y/y, down 1%q/q.Recycling activity was restrained Technology demand was fractionally weaker compared with Q3’24. Supportfrom growing AI demand met with headwinds from US tariff policy and thesurging gold price. to some degree by expectationsof further price gains andgenerally supportive economicconditions. Total quarterly demand by sector in tonnes and US$bn* OTC investmentadded 55ttoQ3 demand. This measure capturescontinued widespread globalinterest from institutions andhigh net worth individuals,particularly in September. For more information pleasecontact:research@gold.org Gold supply and demand might once again disappoint those expecting an annualrecord. Hedging is expected to be muted. Outlook •Recyclingcontinues to surprise in its lacklustre response.Expectations of yet higher prices, lack of economicdistress, lack of ready supplies and a preference to usegold for collateralisation are likely culprits. But risks of asurge are not to be discounted in the price environment. Given the pace of investment and price rises,we revise our FY 2025 investment materiallyhigher and our jewellery expectations lower.All other forecasts remain largely unchangedas we head into the final quarter. Investment The fate of the US dollar remains key for investmentdecisions, under headlines such as ‘debasement’ and ‘de-dollarisation’. There is some disagreement about how readilythese apply; our view is that the reality is more subtle.1Aweaker dollar during the first nine months of 2025 is largelypinned on hedging activity. US assets may have lost some oftheir exceptionalism but they remain core to most globalportfolios. Hedging will just put the onus on them working alittle harder for investors, and a marginal shift intolesscrowded assetsis prudent portfolio management. •Investment: The surprising pace of gold ETFaccumulation has picked up more steam globally in Q4, tobriefly break through prior peak holdings.We think itcould continue supported by a solid case for furtheraccumulation •Bar and coinbuying has been stalwart this year despitethe price rally. We maintain our previously positive targetsbut add a little further upside potential, given a positiveoutlook for China and India Anticipated US policy rate cuts is another key pillar forinvestors. While the opportunity cost motive remainsimportant, the potential consequences of lower rates addmore nuance, potentially reflecting a worsening US economybut also stoking fears of inflation; the by-now familiar themeof stagflation, historically supportive of gold. •Fabrication: High prices are likely to remain the biggestobstacle to jewellery demand volumes. Even if they softenin Q4, we think adjustment to such prices will take time tomaterialise. Our ‘no growth’ technology estimate remainsin place, torn between thrifting and AI investment. Gold ETF demand was the standout sector y-t-d.We thinkthe drivers of this demand remain intacteven after tonnageholdings eclipsed their 2020 highs. As a share of generalportfolios, gold remains under-allocated and a flood of newinvestors could easily push holdings through the previouspeak given the strategic case to do so remains solid. •Central banks: We revise our central bank expectationsmodestly higher, encouraged by demand resilience in Q3in the face of rapid price rises. A broadening of demand isanother welcome and supportive factor. •Supply: Ramp ups and high margins continue toincentivise mine production. But outages and revisions But there are tactical risks that could derail further inflows.These include: technical sell signals; a continued easing of