2025年第三季度全球黄金需求趋势报告

Gold sets new records in Q3 Highlights Demand rises to a new high in tandem with the price The LBMA (PM)gold pricehit13 new all-time highs in the Total gold demand, including OTC, grew 3% y/y to 1,313t, the highest quarterlytotal in our data series. Yet this was eclipsed by the value measure of demand,which jumped 44% y/y to a record of US$146bn in Q3. The price rose 16% during Q3and generated an averagequarterly price of Year-to-date demand is 1% higher at 3,717t, equating to US$384bn in value, up41% y/y. Investors remained firmly in the driving seat in Q3. Huge ETF buying (+222t),accompanied by a fourth successive quarter of bar and coin demand above 300t Total gold supplyrose3% y/yto a quarterly record of 1,313t.Mine production, which typicallysees seasonal growth in Q3, was Central bank buying remained elevated at 220t, 28% up on the prior quarter,albeit that y-t-d buying of 634t has been at a slower pace than the 724t bought Jewellery consumption in Q3 posted a double-digit y/y decline (the sixth insuccession) to 371t, as volumes remained under pressure in the record price The supply of recycled goldremained elevated but stableat 344t: up 6% y/y, down 1% Technology demand was fractionally weaker compared with Q3’24. Supportfrom growing AI demand met with headwinds from US tariff policy and the Recycling activity was restrainedto some degree by expectationsof further price gains and OTC investmentadded 55ttoQ3 demand. This measure capturescontinued widespread globalinterest from institutions and For more information pleasecontact:research@gold.org Gold supply and demand might once again disappoint those expecting an annualrecord. Hedging is expected to be muted. Outlook Expectations of yet higher prices, lack of economicdistress, lack of ready supplies and a preference to usegold for collateralisation are likely culprits. But risks of a Given the pace of investment and price rises,we revise our FY 2025 investment materiallyhigher and our jewellery expectations lower.All other forecasts remain largely unchanged Investment The fate of the US dollar remains key for investmentdecisions, under headlines such as ‘debasement’ and ‘de- dollarisation’. There is some disagreement about how readilythese apply; our view is that the reality is more subtle.1A as we head into the final quarter.•Investment: The surprising pace of gold ETF accumulation has picked up more steam globally in Q4, tobriefly break through prior peak holdings.We think itcould continue supported by a solid case for furtheraccumulationweaker dollar during the first nine months of 2025 is largelypinned on hedging activity. US assets may have lost some oftheir exceptionalism but they remain core to most globalportfolios. Hedging will just put the onus on them working alittle harder for investors, and a marginal shift intoless •Bar and coinbuying has been stalwart this year despitethe price rally. We maintain our previously positive targets but add a little further upside potential, given a positiveoutlook for China and IndiaAnticipated US policy rate cuts is another key pillar forinvestors. While the opportunity cost motive remainsimportant, the potential consequences of lower rates add more nuance, potentially reflecting a worsening US economybut also stoking fears of inflation; the by-now familiar theme •Fabrication: High prices are likely to remain the biggestobstacle to jewellery demand volumes. Even if they softenin Q4, we think adjustment to such prices will take time to in place, torn between thrifting and AI investment.Gold ETF demand was the standout sector y-t-d.We thinkthe drivers of this demand remain intacteven after tonnage holdings eclipsed their 2020 highs. As a share of generalportfolios, gold remains under-allocated and a flood of newinvestors could easily push holdings through the previous •Central banks: We revise our central bank expectationsmodestly higher, encouraged by demand resilience in Q3in the face of rapid price rises. A broadening of demand is •Supply: Ramp ups and high margins continue to But there are tactical risks that could derail further inflows.These include: technical sell signals; a continued easing of Chart2:Scope for further investment growth, central bank buying spree continues, fabrication outlook remains weak Expected change in annual gold demand and supply* tariff tensions; geopolitical resolutions; softening fears of USFed independence; and a rotation out of gold into ‘cheaper’assets. Such risks naturally proliferate when prices move this Central banks Central banks are likely to continue their buying spree. Ourfull year estimate of between 750-900t – barring anysurprises - is lower than last year, but remains – in line withy-t-d flows – surprisingly resilient given strong price rises.Upside and downside risks are balanced, dictated largely by Some further profit-taking in Q4 would not come as asurprise following the mid-October sell-off, although theselling a