迎接浪潮——全球飞行员职业生涯的转变

RoryHeilakka INTRODUCTION The post-pandemic recovery has transformed flight operations departments. At thesame time, attracting pilots and adapting to generational change in the workforce havedriven higher pay rates and more pilot-friendly work rules. More pilots than ever beforeare prioritizing work-life balance and career sustainability. For many, quality-of-life issues —such as improved schedule flexibility and part-time work opportunities — have becomean important focus. These dynamics are impacting pilot career progression and upgradetimelines, as well as how airlines plan for, manage, and train their pilot workforces — anincreasingly expensive resource — throughout theiroperation. In this fourth edition of theOliver WymanFlight Operations Brief, we explore how a pandemic-fueled global pilot shortage has reshaped the balance between compensation and quality oflife for pilots, and what this means for flight operations leaders. Our perspectives are basedon our work with flight operations departments worldwide, interviews with senior leadersacross flight operations, and our analysis of key industry trends and data. This report is partof our comprehensive and ongoing aviation and aerospace research, including our annualGlobal Fleet and MRO forecast, annualMRO Survey, and quarterlyAirline EconomicAnalysis. “The landscape is changing significantly in this industry.What worked a few years ago doesn’t worktoday.” Vice President, Flight Operations, North American NetworkCarrier STATE OF THEINDUSTRY After several years of pilot shortages in some regions, airlines appear to be getting somebreathing room at last. In the previous epicenter of the shortage, North America, demandfor pilots has leveled off as airlines are growing capacity more slowly — the result ofaircraftproduction delays, engine reliability issues, andslowing customer demandin certain marketsegments. At the same time, there has been a near-term surge in new pilots, driven in partby changes in work rules and pay increases in recent collective bargaining agreements.Thus, while some regions and carriers are feeling relief on pilot availability, flight operationsleaders must continue to navigate challenges in other areas, such as cost andproductivity. As shown in Exhibit1,Oliver Wyman’s forecast as of December 2024 projects global pilotsupply to outpace demand throughout the remainder of the 2020s (a significant departurefrom prior forecasts, given the changing supply and demand factors mentioned previously),although some regions, such as the Middle East, will continue to see a pilotshortage. We now expect that the global supply-demand gap will begin to narrow toward the early2030s, if projected mid-term supply chain and economic constraints ease. If constraintson available aircraft abate earlier than expected, however, labor market dynamics couldquickly shift back to an environment where some airlines again face an acute need for newpilots. While airlines should be prepared for a variety of outcomes in the coming decade,maintaining a strong talent pipeline will be critical. (It should also be noted that this outlookwill vary by region — from significant shortage for some to a meaningful surplus forothers.) NORTH AMERICA: FEWER PLANES, MOREPILOTS How quickly things can change in a few years: North America has gone from a record pilotshortage to many carriers now being able to meet their demand for pilots. Lower aircraftutilization and market challenges — especially for low-cost carriers — have slowed capacitygrowth more than previously forecast. And North American carriers that were expectingnew aircraft deliveries in the 2024-2026 timeframe are now facing delays of several moreyears, which will slow the pace of major airline hiring and training in the nearterm. On the supply side for the United States in 2024, the Federal Aviation Administration issued~9,700 Airline Transport Pilot Licenses (ATPLs), the highest number in the past decade. Thistrend is likely to continue for several years, providing a steady flow of pilots sufficient tokeep up with demand, Canada, on the other hand, is expected to see continued tighteningand a highly competitive market for more junior commercial pilots across new entrants andregionalcarriers. Looking toward the end of our forecast, the anticipated shortfall of pilots in North Americain 2030 is expected to be approximately 1,000pilots. MIDDLE EAST: AN EXPANDING PILOTSHORTAGE Unique among the regions, the Middle East faces soaring demand — some 10,300 additionalpilots will be needed by 2030. Although there are some exceptions, many Middle Easternairlines rely on pilots coming from regions with excess supply to fill seats. We expect thesecarriers will continue to tap foreign pilots through enticements such as higher tax-freecompensation and more opportunities to fly widebody aircraft. New carriers and substantialorder books across the region will continue to support suchdemand. PILOT SURPLUS IN OTHERREGIONS