GWIS：体育；Kakao Corp/OpenAI 催化剂；中国策略

22 October 2025 | 10:13 PM China Standard Time Graham AmbroseGoldman Sachs International I am excited about the launch of ChatGPT integration in the popular KakaoTalk app slated forlate Oct. to early Nov. Detail below.Also Kinger Lau published his latest China strategy reporttodayemphasising another 30% upside for China equities by end-2027. In addition to thetransition from Hope to Growth, he notes both domestic and foreign liquidity catalysts: 我对计划在十月底到十一月初在流行的 KakaoTalk 应用中推出 ChatGPT 集成感到非常兴奋。详情如下。此外，Kinger Lau 今天发布了他最新的中国策略报告，强调到 2027 年底中国股票还有约 30%的上行空间。除了从“希望”（Hope）向“增长”（Growth）的转变外，他还指出了来自国内和国际流动性的催化因素： 1. We forecast more than Rmb6 trillion (US$1 trillion) of potential asset reallocation flowsfrom the housing market, fixed income products, and cash/deposits to equities in the nextfew years. 我们预测在未来几年内，来自住房市场、固定收益产品以及现金/存款的潜在资产重新配置流入股票的规模将超过 6 万亿元人民币（约 1 万亿美元）。2. Aggregated GEM active funds China exposure is in its 75thpercentile but AEJ funds are59thand Global funds 30th(up from 13% in late 2024)综合来看，新兴市场（GEM）主动型基金对中国的配置处于第 75 百分位，但亚太新兴市场（AEJ）基金为 59 百分位，全球基金为 30 百分位（较 2024 年末的 13%上升）。 Finally, anyone interested in physical activity/sport/investment should watch this 30min DavidSolomon interview with 51 year old icon and Chief Executive of $115 billion multi-strategyasset manager, Alan Waxman. He lives ‘Lift For Life’. 最后，任何对体育/运动/投资感兴趣的人都应该观看这段 30 分钟的 David Solomon 对话，他采访了51 岁的标志性人物、管理着 1150 亿美元多策略资产的首席执行官 Alan Waxman。他奉行“为生命而举”（Lift For Life）。 Sixth Street CEO Alan Waxman on Sports Investing and Identifying Opportunities 第六街首席执行官艾伦·瓦克斯曼谈体育投资与识别机会 KAKAO CORP: Tencent invested in Kakao Corp in 2012-14 when it was private and owns <10%. Manypeople are watching theOpenAI (ChatGPT)/Kakao partnership (announced Feb 2025)with great interest,and lessons will be drawn for the agentic AI activities of Tencent itself. Its time to expand on my commentson Kakao last week. KAKAO CORP：腾讯在2012–2014年该公司为私有时对Kakao Corp进行了投资，持股低于10%。许多人对OpenAI（ChatGPT）与Kakao在2025年2月宣布的合作抱有浓厚兴趣，并将从中为腾讯自身的代理型人工智能活动汲取教训。我现在是时候就上周关于Kakao的评论做进一步阐述了。 The launch of ChatGPT integration in the popular KakaoTalk app is slated for late Oct. toearly Nov;. 在流行的 KakaoTalk 应用中集成 ChatGPT 的上线时间定于十月底至十一月初。 Its down 3% today after rallying for 2 days. 在连续上涨两天后，今日下跌3%。 South Korea currently has the second-highest number of paid ChatGPT subscribers in the world, justbehind the US, with 12.5 million MAUs (24% of population), and high app stickiness (avg daily usage of 46mins). 韩国目前是全球付费ChatGPT订阅用户数量第二多的国家，仅次于美国，拥有1250万月活跃用户（占人口的24%），且应用黏性高（平均每日使用时长为46分钟）。 GS target 41% upside to W86,000 高盛目标价较当前上涨41%，至86,000韩元 $19bn market cap trading $130m/day 市值190亿美元，日均成交1.3亿美元 32x 12/26 PE; EPS growth 738% (12/25), 77% (12/26), 28% (12/27) 12/26市盈率32倍；每股收益增长：738%（12/25）、77%（12/26）、28%（12/27） 19% CROCI, 8% ROE 19% CROCI，8% ROE 33 page 16 July report: On the cusp of AI transformation; reinstate Kakao at Buy 33页7月16日报告：处于人工智能转型的边缘；将Kakao评级恢复为买入 21 October 2025: 3Q25E preview; Solid earnings expected with accelerating revenue growth fromsubsidiaries, AI initiatives kicking off in 4Q 2025年10月21日：2025年第三季度预览；预计盈利稳健，子公司收入增长加速，人工智能举措将于第四季度启动 In our view, the key variable for Kakao's 3-year earnings growth driven by AI-services is its AI-relatedrevenue pool, which comprises: 在我们看来，推动Kakao未来三年由人工智能服务带动的盈利增长的关键变量，是其与人工智能相关的收入池，该收入池包括： relevant ecommerce categories for Kakao's search ad disruption,与 Kakao 搜索广告颠覆相关的电商类别，relevant online service categories for Kakao's CPS monetization model.与 Kakao 按 CPS 变现模式相关的在线服务类别。 Our base case assumes … 我们的基线假设是…… Kakao's c-gen AI service will be effective infashion-related categories, sports and leisure,cosmetics, and furniture, which make up c. 32% of total EC product commerce GMV as of2024 andKakao 的消费者生成内容（c-gen）AI 服务将在时尚相关类别、体育与休闲、美妆和家具领域有效，这些类别占截至 2024 年总电商商品交易总额的约 32%，并Kakao agentic AI's CPS monetization model is applicable totravel and transportation, aswell as culture and leisure, which make up c. 42% of total online service GMV in 2024.Kakao 具代理智能（agentic AI）能力的 CPS 变现模型适用于旅游与交通，以及文化与休闲领域，这些领域约占 2024 年线上服务总成交额的 42%。 Based on our assumptions, the AI-relevant online search revenue pool equates to W2.4trn (US$1.7bn) in2025E. 基于我们的假设，2025年与AI相关的在线搜索收入池等同于2.4万亿韩元（17亿美元）。 The OpenAI integration has clear theoretical benefits but the initial process in late Spring disappointed. The refresh and deeper integration now being processed could be transformational but weneed to watch execution closely. OpenAI的整合在理论上有明显优势，但初期在晚春的过程令人失望。现在正在进行的刷新与更深入整合可能具有变革性，但我们需要密切关注执行情况。 Kakao operates a multifaceted business model that integrates a wide array of digitalservices into a cohesive ecosystem, leveraging its core strength in mobile messaging todrive growth across diverse segments. Kakao 运营着一个多面向的商业模式，将多种数字服务整合成一个连贯的生态系统，利用其在移动通讯方面的核心优势推动各个细分领域的增长。 KakaoTalk: 49 million MAU KakaoTalk：4900 万月活跃用户 Kakao Entertainment(music via Melon), Kakao Games, Kakao Piccoma (digital comics) Kakao Entertainment（通过 Melon 提供音