全球投资组合经理摘要：繁荣还是萧条
Boom or Bust We provide context and perspective on research acrossregions and asset classes, this week highlighting our latestthoughts on oil markets, European equities and sectorpreferences, and yen rates and the FX outlook in Japan post-election. Equity Product Management Group Terence Malone*+ 1 212 526 7578terence.malone@barclays.comBCI, US Rob Bate*+44 (0)20 7773 3576rob.bate@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Oil Markets Update:Despite the attacks on Russia's refinery and export infrastructure,Russia's total oil exports have remained largely unchanged so far. As a result, we sense somecomplacency among oil market participants. Potentially, Russian government supportmeasures, increased imports, and the planned launch of several modernized oil refineriescouldoffsetthe impact of ongoing attacks. Likewise, although lower oil prices and increasedenergy restrictions have reduced the contribution of oil & gas revenues to Russia's federalbudget, the overheating economy, tax changes, and variousone-offmeasures have supportedthe non-oil revenue flow, maintaining the deficit below 3% of GDP. FICC Product Management GroupJennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, US •European Equities & Sector Preferences:We see equity momentum pushing higher, as: 1)Restarts of the Fed's cutting cycle outside of recessions have typically been risk-on, and thistime is nodifferent;2) Positioning is still close to neutral and has room to rise; 3) ConsensusGDP growth estimates are nudging higher amid a reflationary policy backdrop across the US,EU/Germany, and Japan, and amid booming AI capex, while the US consumer is holding up;4) Earnings momentum is steady and global EPS revisions are positive; 5) Valuations are rich,but by no means extreme in Europe, and are backed by strong credit fundamentals andbuyback activity. Sectorally, we remain cyclically tilted and barbell between domestics likeFinancials, A&D, and exporters like Luxury, Cap Goods, and Tech. With this in mind, we add toquality/exporter laggards via Healthcare (OW) given easing drug pricing overhang, and cutTelecoms (MW). Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. * This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks inthis publication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live. FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 34.FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 34.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 35.Completed: 11-Oct-25, 01:38 GMTReleased: 12-Oct-25, 13:00 GMTRestricted - External •Japan Outlook Post-Election:Sanae Takaichi was elected as the 29th president of theLiberal Democratic Party (LDP) on 4 October, contrary to projections based on pre-electionpolls. We note that Takaichi advocates some fiscal stimulus, including gasoline/light fuel taxcuts, and support for SME wage hikes and refundable tax credits. However, the actual policypath of her administration will depend on negotiations with other parties since the rulingLDP-Komeito coalition has lost its majority in both houses of parliament. As a result, webelieve that JPY weakness and JGB twist-steepening on Takaichi's surprise win at the LDPpresidential election is likely to continue in the near term. Even if her policy stancesoftens,anon-linear market reaction cannot be ruled out if concerns of fiscal dominance arise. Events Best of Barclays Oil and Conflict Unsettling calm Amarpreet Singh BCI, US | Zalina Alborova Barclays, UK | Theresa Chen, CFA BCI, US | CatherineKing BCI, US | Lydia Rainforth, CFA Barclays, UK | Naisheng Cui, CFA Barclays, UK | Thea LacroixBarclays, UK | Ramachandra Kamath Barclays, UK FICC RESEARCH CommoditiesEM EconomicsEQUITY RESEARCHNorth America Midstream andRefiningNeutralEuropean Integrated EnergyPositive Excerpted from Oil and Conflict: Unsettling calm, published on October 6, 2025 There seems to be an unsettling calm in oil markets, as geopolitical tensions continue togrind
