OCP2025：ALAB超卖？AMD或赢Meta？1.6T光模块翻倍？

点评: ➢ESUN vs NVlink/UAlink：上周刚开始最受关注的就是ESUN（Ethernet for scale-up networking），博通早就在几个月前提出了SUE，这次Meta联合博通英伟达AMD等主要玩家达成ESUN进一步加强了以太网在scale-up的地位，利好以太网相关厂商像博通/ANET/CSCO。但市场的反应如ALAB/CRDO的暴跌定价的是以太网要代替PCIe/CXL based UAlink以及AEC等。但ESUN是一个数据链路层标准，而传输层标准可以选择SUE也可以选择UAL，或者其它传输层协议。所以理论上来说ESUN和UAlink很可能并不冲突，PCIe/CXL互联仍然将广泛使用，ALAB/CRDO很可能超卖。 ➢AMD Helios Rack：AMD Helio参数之前在年中的Advancing AI已经发布。每个MI450 GPU均提供高达432 GB的HBM4内存和19.6 TB/s的内存带宽。机架配备72个MI450 GPU可提供高达1.4 EF的FP8性能和2.9 EF的FP4性能，总HBM4内存高达31 TB，总带宽高达1.4 PB/s。主要客户Oracle为第一个MI450的大客户，初始部署为50,000个GPU从3Q26开始。值得注意的是Helios Rack是按照Meta制定的ORW（Open Rack Wide）设计的，很有可能Meta将成为继Oracle之后的MI450第二大客户。 ➢MGX Rack供应链更新：新增了Power shelf供应商Vertiv以及4家液冷UQD供应商Foxconn,Lotes,Netonx, Nidec。 ➢光模块/CPO：GB300 NVL72机架的1.6T光模块价值量翻倍，从1:2.5增加到1:5。预计2026年1.6T出货量可能从800万增长到2000万颗以上。800光模块出货明或将达5000万颗，后年1亿颗。CPO方面，Meta有展示目前的小规模试验没有产生故障，但是共识是规模化still not ready。微软和Oracle将小规模使用NV的CPO交换机Spectrum X。 ➢Scale-across/DCI：Ciena预测未来5年DCI带宽将增长6倍 分析师介绍 分析师赵方舟，香港大学工商管理学学士（会计与金融）毕业，主要覆盖海外硬科技行业，包括AI GPU/ASIC及AI互联。 该分析师2022-2025年曾任职于海通国际研究部，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖海外硬科技行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。 该分析师覆盖的公司包括:英伟达，AMD，博通，Marvell，台积电，Arista Networks，Celestica等。 邮箱:eugene.zhao@gpf.com.hk电话:(852)6082 5609; (86) 178 9848 1530 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4)Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuermentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. (6) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not employed an individual serving as an officerof the issuermentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated withGlobal ProsperityFinancial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Global Prosperity FinancialCompany Limited. Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and its group companies may do business that relates to companies coveredin research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by salespersons, dealers and other professional executives of Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedgroup of companies. Any opinionsexpressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment bankinggroups ofGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limited. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Global ProsperityFinancial Company Limited does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This ResearchReportmay contain some forward-lookingestimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions withinherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understandand comprehend the investmentobjectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen orresident of or locatedin any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which wouldsubjectGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within suchjurisdiction.