2025-2027年全球经济展望报告：10大核心关切问题解析

2 October 2025 Allianz Research Content Page 3-5Executive Summary Page 6-7Who truly bears the cost of the ongoing trade war? Page 8-12Has stagflation transitioned from a looming risk to anundeniable reality? Page 13-14Can central banks untangle their complex dilemmas? Page 15Is the USD’s dominance facing a new era of uncertainty? Page 16-17How far can fiscal dominance propel long-term interestrates? Page 18-19Will the EU finally ramp up defense spending in 2026-27? Page 20-23How are firms navigating the challenge of persistently highfinancing costs? Page 24-27Is a capital market bubble on the horizon? Page 28Which emerging markets are grappling with rising imbalances? Page 30What political events could steer us toward a downsidescenario? ExecutiveSummary •1. Who truly bears the cost of the ongoing trade war?Primarily exporters fornow, but US consumers will also be hit through higher inflation (up by 0.6ppby mid-2026). While global trade routes have shifted, allowing exporters tomitigate the impact, downside risks remain high as sectorial investigationsare ongoing and the trade deal with China is still pending. Export losses couldin theory range from -0.3% of GDP (EU) to -1.3% of GDP (Vietnam) comparedto a pre-trade war scenario. The cost for the US is estimated at -0.3%. FDIpledges in the US, if realized, would amount to 6% of US GDP by 2026-2028,and look very costly for source countries. Overall, growth in global trade ofgoods and services is expected to slow down to +0.6% in 2026 from +2% in2025 in volume terms. Ludovic SubranChief Investment Officer& Chief Economistludovic.subran@allianz.com Jordi Basco CarreraHead of Private Markets InvestmentStrategytjordi.basco_carrera@allianz.com Ana BoataHead of Economic Researchana.boata@allianz-trade.com Maxime Darmet CucchiariniSenior Economist for UK, US & Francemaxime.darmet@allianz-trade.com Lluis Dalmau TaulesEconomist for Africa & Middle Easttlluis.dalmau@allianz-trade.com •2. Has stagflation transitioned from a looming risk to an undeniablereality?Yes, but it is stagflation light for now. Inflation remains above targetin many advanced economies – such as the UK, US and Japan – while growthstays lackluster. This combination marks a mild stagflationary phase byhistoric standards. For most economies, we expect inflation to graduallyreturn toward the 2% target by 2027. While the UK currently stands outwith particularly high inflation, the US is likely to see the most prolongedovershoot. A mix of tariffs, continued fiscal stimulus and immigration-drivenlabor shortages is keeping the US economy mildly overheated and pricepressures elevated. Guillaume DejeanSenior Sector Advisorguillaume.dejean@allianz-trade.com Bjoern GriesbachHead of Macroeconomic and CapitalMarkets Researchbjoern.griesbach@allianz.com Jasmin GröschlSenior Economist for Europejasmin.groeschl@allianz.com •3. Can central banks untangle their complex dilemmas?Central banksin developed markets are navigating a threefold challenge: weak growth,lingering inflation and rising fiscal deficits that are pushing up long-termyields and intensifying focus on global quantitative tightening (QT). Weexpect the Fed to deliver just three more rate cuts by mid-2026, reaching aterminal rate of 3.25–3.50%, notably above current market pricing. The ECBis done cutting, while the BoE is likely to ease further, lowering rates to 3.0%by 2027 – below current market pricing – as inflation will decline and theeconomy needs less monetary restrictiveness. In contrast, the BoJ will movein the opposite direction, continuing to hike toward a 1.0% terminal rate, withcore inflation still too high to ignore. QT will continue at the ECB, BoE and BoJ– provided bond markets remain orderly. The Fed, however, is largely donewith its balance sheet reduction, taking some pressure off longer-term yields. Michael HeilmannSenior Investment Strategistmichael.heilmann@allianz.com Françoise HuangSenior Economist for Asia Pacificfrancoise.huang@allianz-trade.com Patrick KrizanSenior Investment Strategistpatrick.krizan@allianz-trade.com Ano KuhanathanHead of Corporate Researchano.kuhanathan@allianz-trade.com Maria LatorreSector Advisor, B2Bmaria.latorre@allianz-trade.com •4. Is the USD’s dominance facing a new era of uncertainty?Yes – but don’twrite it off yet. Despite the strong de-dollarization narrative, most of the year-to-date weakness in EUR/USD reflects markets pricing in a more dovish Fedrelative to the ECB, driven by signs of economic softness in the US rather thandoubts about Fed independence. Long-term inflation expectations remainwell anchored and near-term price pressures have eased more than expected.However, around a third of the dollar’s decline can indeed be linked to post–“Liberation Day” de-dollarization, primarily via increased FX hedging ratherthan outright capital outflows. Crucially, the US continues to attract strong Pierre LebardPublic affairs Officerpierre.lebard@allianz-trade.com Maxime