2025-2027年全球经济展望

Unchartedterritory Global Economic Outlook 2025–2027: 1H 2025 Kearney ForesightGlobal Business Policy Council The Global Business Policy Council, partof the Kearney Foresight network, is aleading voice on business-environmentresearch and policy. Since its first CEORetreat in 1992, the Council has providedstrategic foresight services for the world’stop executives and government officials.Through public-facing thought leadership,exclusive global forums, and advisoryservices, the Council helps deciphercomplex geopolitical, economic, social,and technological shifts, creating clarity forCEOs and government leaders around keydevelopments and trends for immediateimpact and lasting advantage. Despite these challenges, our outlook also identifiesareas of opportunity. Advances in generative AI andquantum computing could serve to boostproductivity gains. And some regions may emergewith a comparative advantage in the shiftingoperating environment. Our baseline projectionssuggest that the Middle East and Africa, powered bythe United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, will edgeahead of Asia and Australasia as the fastest-growingregion in the world, maintaining steady growth amidglobal trade turmoil. Our latest scenario analysissuggests unprecedently high levelsof uncertainty and growingeconomic fragmentation, creatingsimultaneous challenges andopportunities for businesses. Foreword The opening months of 2025 have been defined byextraordinarily high levels of volatility transformingthe global economic outlook. Baseline projectionsearlier in the year suggested falling inflation andstabilizing global growth, but the potential now forwildcard events—from rising protectionism and tariffproliferation to step-change advances in AI and otheremerging technologies—all suggest further globaleconomic disruption. As Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,chief economist of the International Monetary Fund,noted in April, “The surge in policy uncertainty is amajor driver of the economic outlook. If sustained,the increase in trade tensions and uncertainty willslow global growth significantly.” Nevertheless, our baseline projections reflectdowngraded prospects for global output growth inthe short term amid rising complexities. To explorehow key factors, including geopolitics, industrialpolicy and tariffs, and technology, could shape thetrajectory of economic performance, we havecreated an original set of scenario narrativesexamining plausible economic futures through 2027.Combined with econometric modeling and outputgrowth projections, these scenarios offer anassessment of the range of potential economicfutures relevant to business leaders. While we may be entering uncharted territory definedby volatile headwinds and high levels of uncertainty,strategic leaders are fortifying their businesses forwhat lies ahead and pinpointing areas of opportunity.It is in this spirit that we offer this scenario-basedassessment of the global economic outlook andcorresponding implications for business. As we assess the outlook for the next three years, theconclusion is inescapable: we are now enteringuncharted territory. As the global economy movesbeyond the post-pandemic period, the foreseeablefuture is likely to be shaped by an increasinglyfragmented economic landscape. That view is sharedby the members of the World Economic Forum’sChief Economists Group, 94 percent of whomindicated they expect more fragmentation over thenext three years, driven primarily by geopoliticalrivalries and domestic policy decisions. Suchfragmentation is likely to create additional barriers tolabor mobility and the transfers of technology anddata, exacerbating existing labor and skill shortages. As always, we welcome your views on our analysis. Erik R. Peterson Partner and managing directorGlobal Business Policy CouncilKearney Sharp escalations in protectionist trade measures—areflection of such broader fragmentation—are alreadycreating economic headwinds. While such policiesare often intended to build domestic resilience andprotect strategic industries, they also carry downsiderisks. Implemented poorly, they can stiflecompetition, undermine productivity and tradegrowth, disrupt supply chains, lower investment, anddeepen the economic gap between emerging andadvanced economies. From a consumer perspective,rising fragmentation could contribute to lower growthlevels, a resurgence in inflation, and higher costs forconsumers and businesses. Summary ofkey conclusions What is the global sectoral outlook?While tradevolatility is slated to impact every sector to somedegree, services and construction are expected to berelatively insulated. On the other hand, the textile andmotor vehicles industries could see significantdownside risk if tariffs persist. What is the three-year economic outlook?The baseline global growth outlook through 2027 reflectsa marked deceleration from prior forecasts, driven inlarge part by US tariff announcements, risinggeopolitical risk, and broader economic po