固定收益部市场日报

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 This morning, Asia IG names were 1-2bps wider overall. The new CWAHK30 was down by 0.5pt from RO at 98.8. VNKRLE 29/IHFLIN 28/FAEACO12.814 Perp were 0.3-0.5pt higher. VLLPM 29/EHICAR 26 decreased by0.6-1.2pts. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk Chinese properties:9M25 contracted sales declined 18.5% yoy. Seecomments below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China economy:China’s social financingflow beat market expectations yetits growth remained weak. Government bond issuance further slowed down.Despitethe mild reflation,demand-side stimulus and supply-siderestructuringappear increasingly necessary to support the economicrecovery. Seecomments from CMBI economic research below. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,the new KEBHNB Float 28/KEBHNB 30 tightened 3-5bps fromROat SOFR+60/T5+43.In KR secondary space,KOROIL/HYUELE/HYNMTR belly bonds were 1-3bps tighter, while PKX was 1-2bps wider.AU/JP financial T2s were lackluster and closed mostly unchanged in spreads.On the other hand,Japanese AT1s and insurance hybrids were 0.1-0.3ptfirmerdriven by PB buying.Yankee AT1s like HSBC/INTNED/ACAFP/SOCGEN/BNP were up to 1pt firmer from the previous Asia close, amidbetter buying from RMs and AMs. The French names benefited from animproved political outlook in France. However, UBS bonds were met withselling from London on the legal uncertainties resulting from the Swiss courtruling that wipeout of CS AT1 was unlawful.Most China/HK IG namesrecoveredto up to 3bps from the previous wide.TW lifers FUBON35/SHIKON 35/CATLIFs/NSINTWs were 3-5bps tighter. In Macau gaming,WYNMAC 27-34s/MPEL 27-32s were unchanged to 0.4pt higher, and therestSTCITY 28-29s/SANLTD 27-31s/MGMCHI 26-31s/SJMHOL 26-28swere up to 0.2pt higher.In Greater China higher-beta credits,NWDEVLs rose0.6-1.7pts.MTRC perps were up by 0.3-0.4pt as RMs expressed bullish viewon duration, whilst RMs and PBs were dip buying higher-yielding names likeFOSUNI 26-29s.LASUDE 26 lost 1.2pts. In Chinese properties, YUZHOU27-28s were down by 0.6-0.7pt.VNKRLE 27-29s recovered 0.4-0.5pt.LNGFOR 27-32s were 0.1-0.2pt higher. In Southeast Asia, GARUDA 31recovered 1.6pts. VEDLN 28-33s increased by 0.2-0.8pt. See our commentyesterday. VLLPM 27-29s lowered 0.4-0.5pt. OCBCSP 35 was 1bp wider. LGFVs were largely stable amid decent two-way flows among RMs.We sawrecovery on higher-yielding LGFV names from the lackluster session inSeptember, whilst better buying on USD LGFV issues. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.40%), Dow (-0.04%) and Nasdaq (+0.66%) were mixed on Wednesday. UST yield was higheron Wednesday. 2/5/10/30 yield was at 3.50%/3.63%/4.05%/4.64%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 Chineseproperties:9M25contracted sales declined 18.5% yoy InSep’25, 31 developers under our radar reported contracted sales totaled RMB136.3bn, decreased 9.9% yoyfrom RMB151.3bn in Sep’24. 9 out of 31 developers reported yoy increase in contracted sales in Sep’25,increased from 4 developers in Aug’25. In 9M25,the cumulative contracted sales of 31 developers dropped 18.5% yoy to RMB1,285.6bn. Only 2 state-owned developers out of 31 developers reported yoy increase in contracted sales; CHJMAO and YUEXIUposted 27% and 3% yoy increase in contracted sales to RMB80.7bn and RMB79.8bn, respectively. The bottomperformers were GEMDAL (RMB24.2bn), FUTLAN/FTLNHD (RMB15.1bn), and CIFIHG (RMB13.1bn).Theircontracted sales dropped 54%, 53%, and 50% yoy in 9M25, respectively. The 9M25yoy decline in contracted sales at 18.5% yoy lower than that of 8M25 at 19.4% decline yoy, whilemore developers reported yoy increase in the month of Sep’25, reflecting slight improvement in marketsediment. The Jul’25 Politburo vowed to continue carrying out urban renewal projects in a high-quality manner,yet it did not repeat the vow to “stop the decline” in the property market. CMBI economic research expects thePBOC to cut LPRs by 10bps in 4Q25.This should provide some support to the weak economy and housingmarket. China Economy: Credit weakness with liquidity easing China’s socialfinancing flow beat market expectations yet its growth remained weak. Government bondissuance further slowed down, as a sign of moderating fiscal support. Credit demand in real economy remainedsubdued for both housing and corporate sectors, reflecting weakening property market and lethargic corporatecapex. M1 growth continued to rebound as business activities improved. Looking forward, the central bank islikely to maintain ample liquidity and support steady credit growth. We expect 10 bps LPR cut and 50bps RRRcut in 4Q25. Social financing flows beat market expectation.Outstanding social financing (SF) growth edged down to8.7% in Sep from 8.8% (all in YoY terms unless otherwise specified), as the SF flow declined by 6.1% toRMB3.53trn, which beat market expectat