美中人工智能竞争

Martin ChorzempaOctober 2025 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW| Washington, DC 20036 |www.piie.com AI is at the Center of US-China Tensions •President Trump (2025): “As our global competitorsrace to exploit these technologies, it is a nationalsecurity imperative for the United States to achieve andmaintain unquestioned and unchallenged globaltechnological dominance.” •China Next Generation AI Plan (2017): “firmly seize thestrategic initiative in the new stage of internationalcompetition in AI development, to create newcompetitive advantage…effectively protecting nationalsecurity.” AI Capabilities Build on Compute Source: Stanford HAI AI Index 2025 Export Controls Constrain Chinese Compute •Sweeping U.S. exportcontrols in October 2022reserved best chips forUS firms just beforeChatGPT launch •Restrictions havetightened ever year since US and China Make All the Best Models •US has top 8 modelsand 13 of top 20•China has 6 of top 20•Europe has one modelin 13thplace China: Not Far Behind andDominates OpenWeight Models How do US-China AI Tensions Affect OtherCountries? •Compute constraints on Chinese developers likely contributed to decision torelease open models •Strength of Chinese open models put pressure on US to release better openmodels (overriding safety and leakage concerns) •Low cost, open models from China could limit capture of AI surplus by USdevelopers •Producers of controlled goods (JP, NL, Korea, Taiwan) face severe pressure fromboth sides, so far complying with US controls Thank you! Martin Chorzempa@chorzempamartinmchorzempa@piie.com