美国政府停摆：对经济数据和市场的影响

US government shutdown:Ramifications for economic dataand markets US Economics Pooja Sriram(ii)+1 212 526 0713pooja.sriram@barclays.comBCI, US A potential US government shutdown could delay datacollection and publication from key agencies, including theBLS. Rates markets will likely focus on the economic outlookand uncertainty from missing data, not funding risks, andinflation markets may beaffectedby postponed CPI releases. Public PolicyMichael McLean(v)+1 212 526 9393michael.mclean@barclays.comBCI, US There is a high chance of a US government shutdown on October 1. While it is hard to predictthe length of the shutdown, we think it likely would be at least five days, with a potential to lastfor an extended period, as was seen in 2018-19 (34 days) and 2013 (16 days). This shutdown maydifferfrom previous ones due to an OMB memo instructing agencies to consider terminatingcertain nonessential employees instead of simply furloughing them, which risks amplifying theeconomiceffect. US Rates ResearchAnshul Pradhan(i)+1 212 412 3681anshul.pradhan@barclays.comBCI, US Samuel Earl(i)+ 1 212 526 5426samuel.earl@barclays.comBCI, US A US government shutdown will likely delay key data releases, including the September jobsreport, CPI, and retail sales, depending on the length of the shutdown. Each week of a shutdownis estimated to reduce GDP growth by 0.1pp, but losses are usually recoveredafterreopening.Therefore, an October shutdown may have little imprint on Q4 GDP, but could distortemployment data. Masslayoffsof federal nonessential workers would increase downside risksto both GDP and employment. Jonathan Hill, CFA(i)+1 212 526 3497jonathan.hill@barclays.comBCI, US Rates markets are likely to view the government shutdown through the lens of theeffecton the economic outlook and uncertainty around key data releases,rather than the financialor funding risk lens via which they look at a debt limit impasse. We believe developments arebiased towards an easier path of Fed policy. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. (i)This author is a debt research analyst in the Fixed Income, Currencies and CommoditiesResearch department and is neither an equity research analyst nor subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to analysts who produce debt researchreports under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. (ii)This author is a member of the Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Researchdepartment and is not an equity or debt research analyst. (v)This author is a registered US equity research analyst who is subject to US FINRA Rule 2241and who may write debt research under FINRA Rule 2242. The US inflation market is data sensitive, since cash flows are directly exposed to the CPINSA index. However, given there are no TIPS maturing in November, December or even May/June (relevant for coupon payments), the absence of a CPI release by end of the month (Oct 31,2025) is likely to have limited marketeffect.For inflation swaps, the fallback guidance is slightlydifferent,and appears sensitive to the transaction date. Public Policy: Barreling towards a shutdown Michael McLean(v)BCI, US Government funding lapses on October 1. So far, Congressional Republicans and Democratshave been unable to reach agreement to extend government funding. In our view, there is a highchance of a government shutdown on October 1, with that probability increasing by the day.Both sides appear dug in, and we see few, if any, politicaloff-rampsto an eleventh-hour deal atthis pointafterPresident Trump declined to negotiate with congressional Democratic leadersand Democratic leaders drew a red line on addressing certain health care policy provisions in afunding bill, which has been a nonstarter for Republicans. The case against a shutdown is thatthe party that forces a shutdown (in this case, it would be Democrats) historically has not beensuccessful in leveraging the shutdown to achieve policy wins. On September 19, the House voted 217-212 to pass a continuing resolution (CR) to fund thegovernment through November 21. That same day the Senate failed to pass the House-passedCR because Democrats did not support the bill. With only a 53-seat majority in the Senate and60 votes required to pass a funding bill in the Senate because of the filibuster rule, at least sevenDemocrats, in addition to all Republicans, must support a bill for it to pass. The House hasadjourned and does not plan to return to Washington until October 6, which isaftertheSeptember 30 funding deadline. In our view, this has increased the risk of a shutdown. It isdifficultto predict the possible length of a shutdown. Since the House is not expected toreturn u