2025年第三季度全球市场调查

September2025 Jim ReidHead of Global Economics and ThematicResearch(+44)-20-7547-2943jim.reid@db.com Stefan Abrudan(+44)-20-7547-0659stefan.abrudan@db.com With special thanks to Anthony Chaimowitz of thedbDataInsights team Our Q3 2025 global financial marketsurvey had 280 responses from aroundthe world, conducted 22-25 September2025. Bubble risk perception remains high in US tech but has not increased that much in2025 and is still below that seen in 2021. Back then, the main valuation argumentwas zero rates. Now at least the AI story provides some hope it’s not a bubble. Eventhough US credit spreads are at 27-yr lows, bubble risk is not seen as that elevated... Looking at the following assets and using a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means ‘No Bubble’and 10 means ‘Extreme Bubble’, please tell us where you think these assets currently are? Respondents view the Fed as becoming less independent but even before theelection there was a belief that the Fed was less than truly independent. So theincrease isn’t seen as that extreme. When considering Federal Reserve independence and using a scale of 0 to 100, where 0 is‘Completely independent’ and 100 is ‘Completely controlled by the government’, where do you thinkthe Fed was/will be at the following time points? Overall, respondents believe there is a 39% chance Powell will stay on as a FedGovernor(and retain a vote) after his Chair term ends in May. But the wide spread ofanswers means no-one is really sure. The vast majority of Fed Chairs have left the Fedimmediately after their Chair term has ended. This could be a big theme in 2026... What probability do you assign to Jerome Powell remaining on the Board of Governorsafter May (when he is no longer Chair)? AVG:39.1% Should 10yr UST yields rise or fall in this easing cycle? Most (53%) thinkthey should fall but 32% think they should rise. So not conclusive.... Thinking about the current Fed easing cycle from now until it ends, do you expect 10-yearUS Treasury yields to be… If there is a government bond crises in the next 2 years, the most likely ofthese candidates in order are seen as France, UK, US, Japan, Italy and thenGermany. France is quite far ahead of the UK at the top of the list. Please rank the following countries in terms of where you think a governmentbond crisis of some kind may occur in the next 12 to 24 months. A majority (56%) believe that the economic stimulus in Germany will disappointcompared to initial expectations. Only 6% think it will exceed expectations! Oureconomists still believe in a large surge of spending that will start in Q4, so the softersentiment could be setting up for a resumption of the long-Germany trade... Compared to expectations at the time of its announcement in Spring 2025, do you thinkthe economic impact of the German stimulus package will... 77% would rather choose to own the rest of the US market compared to theMagnificent 7. Very interesting, around one year ago, we had very similarresults, with 74% despite Mag-7 gaining 41% since. Would you rather own Mag-7 stocks or the rest of the US stock market for yourpension? AI adoption at work is growing. Only 18% have not used AI for work now,compared to almost a half (48%) one year ago. Which of the following best describes your use of AI tools for work-related taskswithin the last three months? 74% prefer the EUR to the USD for the next year, only down 4pp since June.Over 5 years, we continue to see a roughly 50:50 split. So, investors are notpersuaded that it is the start of a structural USD bear market. US equities are back in favour vs. Europe over a one-year horizon for thefirst time this year. Over 5-years, US equities continue to dominate, butthe lead over Europe has fallen. US inflation expectations are now at their highest since Q4 2022. In Europethey have edged up but are in the middle of their post-2024 range andsettling at around 2%. Expectations of a US recession in the next 12 months remain in line with theanswers from June and are below that seen in March 2025 before Liberation Day. Mar-25 AVG:42.7%Jun-25 AVG:33.9%Sep-25 AVG:34.0% Appendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank,subject companies,and othersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting. Analyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has