2025年夏季全球市场调查

July 2025 Jim ReidHead of Global Economics and ThematicResearch(+44)-20-7547-2943jim.reid@db.com With special thanks to AnthonyChaimowitzof thedbDataInsightsteam Our 2025 global financial market surveyhad 420 responses from around theworld, conducted between the 30thofJune and 2ndof July 2025. Just over half (55%) believe reciprocal tariffs are coming on July 9thin someform. Just under half believe we will either get a further extension (12%) orseveral trade deals (32%).Soa slightly negative bias going into the eventperhaps.. But with only 1% expecting the worst. July 9th2025marks the end of the 90-day suspension of US reciprocal tariffs. As weapproach this date, which of these statements will best reflect the overall narrative? Confidence in US exceptionalism has declined since the start of the year but viewsare reasonably split going forward, with 44% believing it will resurface and 49%expecting a slow erosion over the next few years. Despite recent events, only 7%foresee a rapid erosion with significant outflows. Which of the following statements best reflects your view on US exceptionalismover the months and years ahead? Only 12% of participants believe the US fiscal deficit will significantlyinfluence the market in the next year. However, this figure rises to 52% overa five-year horizon, with only 8% believing that the fiscal deficit will have noinfluence over that same period. Fascinatingly, only 16% believe the Fed is completely independent, with25% thinking the political pressure will lead to lower rates, while 58%believe it will have a marginal influence on policy. Is there a chance that Mr. Trump’s desire to see much lower interest rates, will lead tolower interest rates from the Fed than would have otherwise been the case over the next12 to 18 months? Since Liberation Day, the USD’s dominance has dwindled. Currently, 78%prefer holding EUR for the next year. Over 5 years it’s roughly a 50:50 splitthough… So this fits with the earlier view that around half don’t think USexceptionalism is over European equities are preferred by 59% for the next year, down from 85% inMarch. However over 5 years, 70% prefer US equities, similar to where wewere in March... So in equities, the market thinks US exceptionalism will beback... Sentiment on German growth remained stable since the last survey but withless outliers now, with only 5% expecting a higher growth than 2%-from7% in March-but only 8% thinking below 0.5% against 15% in March. The German economy has seen average real GDP growth of zero over the last 5years. What do you think the average annual growth rate will be over the next 5years? US recession probability over the next 12 months has fallen from 43% inMarch to 34% in June. H1 has seen a notable shift in those “extensively” using AI tools in their workplacefrom 5% to 13%. Which of the following best describes your use of AI tools for work-related taskswithin the last three months? 92% of participants believe that geopolitical risk in the Middle East is unlikely to have a major marketimpact for the rest of the year. While 53% of those respondents expect some minor events, these willnot be a significant market mover. 8% believe it will be a big issue again.... Do you think the conflict in the Middle East is likely to become an issue againbefore the end of the year or will it now largely be a non-event for markets? Following the Q1 spike after the tariff announcement, inflation expectationshave eased back to roughly where they ended 2024.... Appendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloomberg and other vendors.Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank,subject companies,and othersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting. Analyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report.Jim Reid. AdditionalInformation The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively "Deutsche Bank"). Though the information herein is believed to be reliableand has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in thisreport are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses