主题研究2025年夏季全球市场调查结果-116300731

ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 |jim.reid@db.comOur 2025 global financial market surveyhad 420 responses from around theworld, conducted between the 30thofJune and 2ndof July 2025. ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 |jim.reid@db.comJust over half (55%) believe reciprocal tariffs are coming on July 9thin someform. Just under half believe we will either get a further extension (12%) orseveral trade deals (32%).Soa slightly negative bias going into the eventperhaps.. But with only 1% expecting the worst.July 9th2025marks the end of the 90-day suspension of US reciprocal tariffs. As weapproach this date, which of these statements will best reflect the overall narrative?Source:dbDIGSurvey, Deutsche Bank.55%32%12%1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%The US selectively imposes reciprocaltariffs on countries where agreementsappear far offSeveral trade deals are announcedaround that date, without too muchnegativity elsewhereThere is another universal extensionacross all or, virtually all countriesThe US imposes widespread reciprocaltariffs like those announced onLiberation Day ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 |jim.reid@db.comConfidence in US exceptionalism has declined since the start of the year but viewsare reasonably split going forward, with 44% believing it will resurface and 49%expecting a slow erosion over the next few years. Despite recent events, only 7%foresee a rapid erosion with significant outflows.Which of the following statements best reflects your view on US exceptionalismover the months and years ahead?Source:dbDIGSurvey, Deutsche Bank.44%49%7%0%10%20%30%40%50%US exceptionalism will likely resurface again over themonths and years ahead as there is no other countrythat can compete on growth, and for investmentflows, in spite of recent eventsUS exceptionalism will slowly erode over a number ofyearsUS exceptionalism will see a more rapid erosion overthe months and years ahead with notable outflowsfrom US assets ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 |jim.reid@db.comOnly 12% of participants believe the US fiscal deficit will significantlyinfluence the market in the next year. However, this figure rises to 52% overa five-year horizon, with only 8% believing that the fiscal deficit will have noinfluence over that same period.Over the following time horizons, will the US fiscal deficit be...Source:dbDIGSurvey, Deutsche Bank.12%52%62%40%26%8%0%20%40%60%1yr horizon5yr horizonA major market influenceA notable market influence without being a major oneJust noise in the background and little influence on markets ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 |jim.reid@db.comFascinatingly, only 16% believe the Fed is completely independent, with25% thinking the political pressure will lead to lower rates, while 58%believe it will have a marginal influence on policy.Is there a chance that Mr. Trump’s desire to see much lower interest rates, will lead tolower interest rates from the Fed than would have otherwise been the case over the next12 to 18 months?Source:dbDIGSurvey, Deutsche Bank.16%58%25%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%No, the Fed are completely independentUnlikely, the committee might lean more dovishlybecause of this but it won't be enough to influencepolicy other than at the marginYes, the public pressure will begin to influence thecommittee, and its composition, and move rateslower than they otherwise would have been ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 |jim.reid@db.comSince Liberation Day, the USD’s dominance has dwindled. Currently, 78%prefer holding EUR for the next year. Over 5 years it’s roughly a 50:50 splitthough… So this fits with the earlier view that around half don’t think USexceptionalism is overOver the following time periods, which currency would you rather hold?Source:dbDIGSurvey, Deutsche Bank.78%51%22%49%0%20%40%60%80%1yr5yrsThe EuroThe USD ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 |jim.reid@db.comEuropean equities are preferred by 59% for the next year, down from 85% inMarch. However over 5 years, 70% prefer US equities, similar to where wewere in March... So in equities, the market thinks US exceptionalism will beback...Over the following time horizons, would you rather own US or European equities?Source:dbDIGSurvey, Deutsche Bank.85%59%28%30%15%41%72%70%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Mar-25Jun-25Mar-25Jun-251yr horizon5yr horizonEuropean EquitiesUS Equities ResearchDeutsche BankJim Reid | (+44) 20 7547 2943 |jim.reid@db.comSentiment on German growth remained stable since the last survey but withless outliers now, with only 5% expecting a higher growth than 2%-from7% in March-but only 8% thinking below 0.5% against 15% in March.The German economy has seen average real GDP growth of zero over the last 5years. What do you think the average annual growth rate will be over the next 5years?Source:dbDIGSurvey, Deutsche Bank.0%1%1%1%1%11%28%33%18%6%1%0%0%1%1%0%6%37%34%15%3%0%10%20%30%40%Under -2-1.5 to -2-1 to -1.5-0.5 t