G20非洲契约倡议对成员国的经济影响（英）

Economic Impact of G20Compact with AfricaInitiative on MemberCountries Edward R. Gemayel, Asel Isakova, Vidhi Maheshwari WP/25/189 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025SEP IMF Working PaperAfrican Department Economic Impact of G20 Compact with Africa Initiative on Member Countries Prepared by Edward R. Gemayel, Asel Isakova, Vidhi Maheshwari Authorized for distribution by Edward R. GemayelSeptember2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:The Compact with Africa (CwA) is an initiative launched in 2017 under Germany’s G20Presidency to promote private investment in Africa through creating a more attractive environment for privateinvestment through policy reforms and improved macroeconomic and business frameworks in membercountries. This paper attempts to quantify the impact of CwA membership on FDI inflows. We employ theentropy balancing methodology to improve the credibility of a causal inference between CwA membership andFDI inflows. While we could not conclusively establish causality, our analysis offers other useful insights.Inward FDI data suggests that CwA countries have experienced stronger FDI inflows on average, includingduring the pre-CwA years. Furthermore, these countries tend to have stronger institutions, better infrastructureand human development, which are among the key factors that help attract FDI to developing countries.Hence, continued efforts of African governments to implement structural reforms, strengthen institutions,improve infrastructure and develop human capital are vital to create an attractive FDI environment, while theCwA initiative could provide a platform for peer-to-peer learning and exchange, capacity building, policydialogue and collaboration. Economic Impact of G20 Compactwith Africa Initiative on MemberCountries Prepared byEdward R. Gemayel, Asel Isakova, Vidhi Maheshwari1 Contents I.Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................3II.Literature Review.....................................................................................................................................5FDI and Macroeconomic Performance...........................................................................................................5What Drives FDIin Africa?.............................................................................................................................5Impact of CwA on Member Countries in Africa..............................................................................................6III.Methodology............................................................................................................................................6IV.Data.........................................................................................................................................................9V.Results...................................................................................................................................................12VI.Discussion...........................................................................................................................................166VII.Conclusion...........................................................................................................................................188 FIGURES 1. Net FDI inflows to Africa....................................................................................................................................42. Net FDI inflows, by region.................................................................................................................................43. FDI inflows to CwA members............................................................................................................................44. FDI inflows to CwA and non-CwA.....................................................................................................................45. CwA vs. non-CwA Countries on Key Variables that Impact FDI Inflows..........................................................116.Pre-Balance Distributions Across Selected Control Variables...........................................................................127.Post-Balance Distributions Across Selected Control Variables.........................................................................13 TABLES 1.Standardized Mean Difference Test......