生猪周报：十月上旬恐慌继续延续

2025年10月13日星期一第42周中粮期货研究院 全景扫描 供给评价：远近分化。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 农产品组 需求评价：中性。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 库存评价：稳定。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 关壹麟 从从从从从F3077472从从从从从Z0018177guanyilin@cofco.com 利润评价：偏弱。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 偏差视点 基本面的偏差。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 政策面的偏差。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 基本面和政策面的偏差。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 免责声明 第一部分市场回顾 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从12110从/从从从从从从4.83%从LH2511从从11320从/从从从从从从8.38%从LH2601从从12140从/从从从从从从5.34%从LH2603从从11960从/从从从从从从4.17%从LH2605从从12525从/从从从从从从2.79%从LH2607从从13280从/从从从从从从1.59%从 第二部分全景扫描 生猪现货行情：从从从从从从从从11.89从/kg从从从从从6.16%从从从从从32.60%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从15kg从从从从282从/从从50kg从从从从从从1567从/从从从从从从从从从从从从从从65.52从/从从从从从从从从从从104从/从从从从从从从从从从从从319.92从/从从从从从从从从从从从从213.88从/从从从从从从从从从从从从从从13.20从/从从 标肥价差：从从150kg-120kg从175kg-120kg从200kg-120kg从从从从从从4.50%从8.48%从14.53%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 出栏体重：从从从从从从从从从从从128.48从从从从从从从0.07从从从150从从从从从从从从4.91%从90从从从从从从3.81%从从从从从从从从从从从124.12从从从从从从从从从143.01从从从从从从从0.13从从从从从从从0.91从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从76.90%从从从从从从从23.10%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 屠宰消费：从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从135.17从从从从从从从4.26%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从74.03从从从从从从从6.78%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从744从从从从从从2.76%从从从从从从从从从从91.41%从从从从从0.36%从从从从从从从从从9从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 库存：从从从从从从从从从从从从从19.14%从从从从从0.48%从5从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 能繁母猪：从从8从从从从从从从从从从4038从从从从从从从0.10%从从2024从4从从从从从1.30%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从2024从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从3900从从从103.67%从从从从从从从从从从92%-105%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从8从从 免责声明 从从从从从从从从从从0.07%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 商品猪存栏与出栏：2025从从从从从从从从17143从从从从从从从11.98%从从从从从1.20%从从从从从从从17200从从从从从2025从6从从从从从从从42477从从从从从从从1.79%从从从从从2.27%从从从从从从从从从从从从从2025从Q3从从从16000从从从从从2025从Q4从从从18500从从从从从 政策：从从2025从9从24从从从从从从从5.68从从从从从从6从1从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从8从从从从从从从从从从从从9从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从2.5从从从从从3.4从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 免责声明 第三部分核心因素分析与跟踪 1.核心因素 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从9从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从9从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从10从从从从从从从从12从从从从从从从从从从12从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从8从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 免责声明 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从10-11从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从contango从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 2.预期偏差 从从从从从从从从从从从从 ①基本面的偏差。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 从从从从从从 ②政策面的偏差。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 ③基本面和政策面的偏差。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 免责声明 免责声明 免责声明 免责声明 免责声明 免责声明 免责声明 免责声明 免责声明 免责声明 免责声明 中粮期货研究院(Institute ofCOFCO Futures Co., Ltd) 从从(Address):从从从从从从从从从从从从5从从从从从从15从从3从305-313从从4从401-402从从从(Phone):400-706-0158从从(Website)从www.zlqh.com 中粮期货研究院介绍 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 The COFCO Futures Research Instituteis a research department affiliated to COFCOFutures headquarters, responsible for the company's basic research and development work,and its research fields cover macroeconomics, agricultural products, chemicals, metals,building materials, energy and other aspects. The research institute serves the front-officebusiness department of COFCO Futures and the industrial department of COFCO Group,undertakes the responsibility of maintaining the company's brand and enhancing thecompany's image, and is engaged in the development, maintenance and value-addedservices of high-end industrial and institutional customers. Relying on the strong spotcommodities and futures markets background of COFCO Group, and based on years ofpractice, the research institute has developed a deviation response research system with thecharacteristics of COFCO Futures. The system consists of three modules: circumstanceanalysis, market response, and expected deviation. It uses higher dimensions and morediversified methods