资产与财富管理：汰弱留强——争夺相关性赛道，并购添柴加火

Thinning the Herd: The Race forRelevance Fueling M&A By 2029, we expect 20% fewer wealth and asset managers. As growth becomes scarcerand more concentrated, intra-sector scale becomes paramount. As insurers and wealthmanagers reassess whether they are the right owners of their asset manager, inter-sectoropportunities emerge. + = Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Authors MORGAN STANLEY OLIVER WYMAN Betsy L. Graseck, CFA1EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761 8473Betsy.Graseck@morganstanley.com Lubasha HerediaPARTNER+1 917 455 7805Lubasha.Heredia@oliverwyman.com Joshua ZwickPARTNER+1 917 846 9483Joshua.Zwick@oliverwyman.com Michael J. Cyprys, CFA, CPA1EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761 7619Michael.Cyprys@morganstanley.com Ben PhillipsPARTNER+1 212 345 3210Ben.Phillips@oliverwyman.com Giulia Aurora Miotto, CFA2EQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7425 5344Giulia.Aurora.Miotto@morganstanley.com Kamil Kaczmarski, CFAPARTNER+49 69 971 73573Kamil.Kaczmarski@oliverwyman.com Connell J. Schmitz1RESEARCH ASSOCIATE+1 212 761 6252Connell.Schmitz@morganstanley.com João Miguel RodriguesPARTNER+49 30 3999 4558JoaoMiguel.Rodrigues@oliverwyman.com Mia Nagasaka4EQUITY ANALYST+81 3 6836 8406Mia.Nagasaka@morganstanleymufg.com Bradley KellumPARTNER+1 646 364 8425Bradley.Kellum@oliverwyman.com Marina Massuti2EQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7677 364Marina.Massuti@morganstanley.com Philip SchroederPARTNER+44 77 4984 1436Philip.Schroeder@oliverwyman.com Andrei Stadnik, FIAA3EQUITY ANALYST+61 2 9770 1684Andrei.Stadnik@morganstanley.com Kilian ScheuberPRINCIPAL+41 79 363 7665Kilian.Scheuber@oliverwyman.com Nick Lord3EQUITY ANALYST+65 6834 6746Nick.Lord@morganstanley.com Lilian SachtlebenPRINCIPAL+49 69 971 73017Lilian.Sachtleben@oliverwyman.com Annalei E Davis1RESEARCH ASSOCIATE+1 212 761 1736Annalei.Davis@morganstanley.com Richard Xu, CFA5EQUITY ANALYST+852 2848 6729Richard.Xu@morganstanley.com Valentin Allard, CFAENGAGEMENT MANAGER+33 6 7519 8060Valentin.Allard@oliverwyman.com 1 Morgan Stanley & Co LLC2 Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC+3 Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+4 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+5 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Contributors MORGAN STANLEY OLIVER WYMAN Stephanie Ma, CFA1EQUITY ANALYSTStephanie.Ma@morganstanley.com Christian Edelmann, CFAMANAGING PARTNERChristian.Edelmann@oliverwyman.com Ryan Kenny1EQUITY ANALYSTRyan.Kenny@morganstanley.com Huw van SteenisPARTNERHuw.Vansteenis@oliverwyman.com Ronan O'KellyPARTNERRonan.OKelly@oliverwyman.com Joon Seok2EQUITY ANALYSTJoon.Seok@morganstanley.com Chiyao Huang5EQUITY ANALYSTChiyao.Huang@morganstanley.com Thomas HofmannPARTNERThomas.Hofmann@oliverwyman.com Barron Thomas1RESEARCH ASSOCIATEBarron.Thomas@morganstanley.com Jasper YipPARTNERJasper.Yip@oliverwyman.com Alvaro Serrano2EQUITY ANALYSTAlvaro.Serrano@morganstanley.com Anuj GuptaPARTNERAnuj.Gupta@oliverwyman.com Aitong Li3EQUITY ANALYSTAitong.Li@morganstanley.com Alexandre de MontbasSENIOR ADVISORAlexandre.DeMontbas@oliverwyman.com Richard Shepherd, CFASENIOR RESEARCH SPECIALISTRichard.Shepherd@oliverwyman.com Heewon Choi4EQUITY ANALYSTHeewon.Choi@morganstanley.com Agathe MellianSENIOR CONSULTANTAgathe.Mellian@oliverwyman.com Rick Zhao5EQUITY ANALYSTRick.Zhao@morganstanley.com Minseo Kang4RESEARCH ASSOCIATEMinseo.Kang@morganstanley.com Mattia CarnelliSENIOR CONSULTANTMattia.Carnelli@oliverwyman.com Hadley Cohen2EQUITY ANALYSTHadley.Cohen@morganstanley.com Anaïs SahebCONSULTANTAnais.Saheb@oliverwyman.com 1 Morgan Stanley Co LLC2 Morgan Stanley Co. International PLC+3 Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+4 Morgan Stanley Co. International plc, Seoul Branch+5 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Contents 5Executive Summary6Key Messages from Interviews8Section 1. Asset Management: The Rising Tide Is Shifting15Section 2. Wealth Management: Navigating Wealth Shifts and Margin Pressures21Section 3. How M&A Is Changing the Face of the AM and WM Ecosystem40Section 4. Rethinking Talent Management in the Age of AI Executive Summary pendent wealth managers consolidating. Success has been mixed,particularly for asset managers: In recent years, less than 40% offlagship1 asset management transactions improved cost-incomeratios three years after a deal, half were in net outflows, and half ofprivate market specialists acquired by traditional managers grewslower than the market. For wealth managers, multiple arbitrage hasdriven most of the value creation in independent consolidation, whileprivate banks have managed to effectively leverage acquisitions anddivestituresto reprioritize onshore markets and improveprofitability. The wealth and asset management industries have long been amongthe most fragmented within financial services. Despite the econo-mies of scale of both