固定收益部市场日报

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 Asia IG space was unchanged to 2bps tighter this morning amid ChineseGolden Week Holiday. We saw buyers on Chinese HY HONGQI/FOSUNIand Chinese properties CHJMAO/YUEXIU, as well as Japanese long-endAT1 papers.HYSAN 4.85 Perp down 0.1pt. The new VEDLN 32s were 0.1pthigher. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk Macau gaming:Slower yoy GGR growth in Sep due mainly to typhoonshutdown. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk IHFLIN:Media reported that IHC is set to acquire a 40-45% stake inSammaan Capital for USD1bn and mayend up with a controlling interest ofmore than 65%. IHFLIN 27-28s rose 1.7-3.4pts this morning. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 We sawbalanced two-way flows in Asia IG space into the quarter end onTuesday.The new DAESEC 28s traded two-way between FM and PB, andclosed unchanged. Therest of Korea IGs were largely unchanged. China IGbenchmarks BABA/HAOHUA/MEITUA and China AMC perps were tradedmixed two way. We saw more selling in high-beta FRESHK 26-28s. TW lifersCATLIF 34/NSINTW 34/SHIKON 35 were 2-4bps tighter. HSBC 30/31s FRNsalso traded mixed two way and more buying flows on MIZUHO.In HK,NWDEVL 27-31s/Perps were 0.1-1.0pt higher. NWD released widened FY25losses on non-cash write-down last Friday. That said, we view the near-termrefinancing risk considerably relieved. See our comments on29 Sep’25.LASUDE 26 was 1.3pts higher. Media reported Lai Sun closes to signHKD3.5bn secured 5-year loan facility to refinance a HKD3.6bn loan due inOct’25.VNKRLE 27-29 were 0.4-0.8pt lower. Elsewhere, EHICAR 26-27were 1.0-1.3pts lower. eHi’s 1H25 loss before tax decreased 13.7% yoy toRMB351.5mn. In SEA, Vedanta priced the new USD500mn VEDLN 9.12532s at par, the new VEDLN 32s were 0.1pt lower at close. The existingVEDLN 28-33s were 0.1-0.9pt higher. VLLPM 27-29 were 0.6-1.2pt lower. Inthe Middle East, there were profit taking on BSFR 35s from PBs and closedc0.2pt lower. In LGFV space, flows were overall light and mostly driven bycash and risk management needs. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.34%), Dow (+0.09%) and Nasdaq (+0.42%) were higher on Wednesday. US government halfon Wednesday as senators fail to agree funding plan. The US Sep’25 ISM Manufacturing PMI was 49.1, higherthan the market expectation of49.0. The US Sep’25 ISM Manufacturing prices was 61.9, lower than the marketexpectation of 62.7. UST yield was lower on Wednesday. 2/5/10/30 yield was at 3.55%/3.68%/4.12%/4.72%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 Macau gaming:Slower yoy GGR growth in Sep due mainly to typhoon shutdown In Sep’25, the gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau was MOP18.3bn, the yoy GGR growth of the monthmoderated to 6.0% from12.2% in Aug’25. Cumulatively, the GGR in 9M25 increased 7.1% yoy to MOP181.3bn,moderating from 7.2% yoy increase in 8M25.Recalled that casinos in Macau were shut down for 33-hourcasino shutdown when Super Typhoon Ragasa passed through on 24-25 Sep.33-hour is equivalent to 4.6%of the operating hour in Sep’25.Adjusting for the operating hours lost, the yoy GGR growth in Sep’25 shouldbe roughly the same as the yoy growth of 12.2% reported in Aug’25. We are not concerned of the temporaryblip of GGR because of extreme weather condition. Indeed, we note the strong tourist arrivals so far in Oct’25.As per Macao Government Tourism Office, it expects 1.2mn tourist arrivals during the October Golden Week.The full year tourist arrivals in 2025 will increase 11.5% from 34.93mn to 38.95mn. In 8M25, the tourist arrivalsin Macauwere up 15.0% yoy. The 9M25 GGR totaled MOP181.3bn is equivalent to 79.5% of Macau government’s revised GGR estimate ofMOP228bn (vs MOP226.8bn in 2024). The full year GGR estimate, in our view, is highly achievable given thesustainable growth in tourist arrivals (up 15% yoy in 8M25).The GGR growth in Macau gaming sector isaccelerating starting from 2Q25. While Melco is revamping the Countdown Hotel in Macau and will reopen the premise in 3Q26; MGM China is renovating Cotai casino resort and the renovation will be completed in 1Q26.SJM is expanding Casino Lisboa by acquiring part of the Hotel Lisboa. These initiatives will help sustain thegrowth of gaming and non-gaming revenue. As per our Macau gaming sector piece on5 Sep’25, the conviction level of Macau gaming bonds are notablylower.That said, we consider Macau gaming bonds lower-beta and good carry plays with improving creditstories.We expect more new issues in view of refinancing requirements with the scheduled maturities andmuch more affordable funding costs given the solid bond performance since the end of COVID lockdown. Ourtop picks are MPELs and STCITYsin view of the improving market shares and growing adj. EBITDA of Melcoand Studio City, as well as the more appealing risk-return profiles of MPELs/STCITYs. Meanwhile, we considerWYNMAC’27 and ‘29