哥伦比亚：选定问题

COLOMBIA SELECTED ISSUES This paperonColombiawas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. Itis based on the information available at the time it was completed onSeptember15, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. COLOMBIA SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByWestern HemisphereDepartment Prepared by Marco Arena,Camila Casas, Sophia Chen,DariaKolpakova and Roberto Perrelli (WHD), Bihong Huang(MCM), Alberto Garcia-Huitron and Alpa Shah (FAD), andPhilippe Wingender (RES). CONTENTS THE INFLATIONARY RISKS OF EXPANSIONARY FISCAL POLICY ___________________3 FIGURES 1. Responses to Structural Deficit Shocks _______________________________________________82. Inflation Responses to Alternative Measures of Fiscal Shocks ________________________93. Responses to Public Debt Shocks __________________________________________________ 10 TABLES 1. Responses to Fiscal and Public Debt Shocks _______________________________________112. Responses to Alternative Measures of Fiscal Deficit Shocks ________________________123. Responses to Public Debt Shocks by Levels of Debt________________________________13 ANNEX I. Empirical Methodology and Data ___________________________________________________14 MACRO-FISCAL IMPACTS OF COLOMBIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION PLAN ________16 FIGURES 1. Projected Fossil Fuel Production and Prices—Global Scenarios ____________________ 182. Oil Production and Government Revenues, 2015-2050 ____________________________ 183. Coal Production and Government Revenues, 2015-2050 ___________________________ 194. Decrease in Direct Allocation of Royalty Revenues to Producing Regions __________ 205. Labor Market Impact of Declining Production of Coal and Oil Under APS Scenario216. Energy Transition Impact on Power Sector and Upstream/Downstream Industries_227. Labor Market Impact of Coal, Oil, and Power Sectors ______________________________238. Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Depletion: Counterfactual Analysis _________________ 259.Macroeconomic Impact of Reforms ________________________________________________ 27 ANNEX I. Financing the Energy Transition_____________________________________________________________ 28 References____________________________________________________________________________________31 LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN COLOMBIA ____________________________________________32 FIGURES 1. Labor Force Participation by Gender and Age, 1960-2023__________________________________322. Cross-Country Comparison Labor Force Participation ______________________________________333. Labor Growth, 2000-19_____________________________________________________________________344. Drivers of Probability of Participating in the Labor Force, 2023_____________________________365. Drivers of Probability of Participating in the Labor Force, 2023_____________________________376. Labor Contribution to Long-Term Growth: A Counterfactual Analysis ______________________37 TABLE 1. Drivers of Probability of Participating in the Labor Force, 2013-19 _________________________ 35 References____________________________________________________________________________________ 39 THE INFLATIONARY RISKS OF EXPANSIONARY FISCALPOLICY1 Drawing on an extensive literature, this paper examines the extent to which expansionary fiscal policyposes a challenge to containing inflation.2It does so by assessing how inflation responds to shocks tothe fiscal deficit and public debt, and by identifying the channels through which these effects operatein Latin American countries. The analysis finds that unanticipated fiscal deficits are associated withhigher current and future inflation. Consistent with predictions from an open economy Phillips curveframework, output gaps widen, inflation expectations rise, and the real exchange rate depreciates—due to an increase in the risk premium—following a shock. Unanticipated public debt is also linked tohigher inflation mainly through the output gap and exchange rate channels. 1.This paper examines the extent to which expansionary fiscal shocks challenge the fightagainst inflation. This question is particularly relevant for Colombia, where fiscal policy has becomeexpansionary during 2024-25 at a time when inflation has remained above the central bank's targetrange. This issue is also relevant in peer Latin American and emerging market economies, ascountries balance the need to bring down inflation against the need to support the post-pandemicrecovery and address new social and infrastructure demands. 2.How inflation responds to expansionary fiscal shocks is crucial for determining theappropriate policy response. Monetary policy calibration should consi