南华期货贵金属2025年四季度展望：再创新高 强势延续

目录...............................................................................................................................21.贵金属市场回顾.....................................................................................................42.美国关税政策担忧引发跨市价差异动.....................................................................73.宽货币预期推升贵金属估值与投资需求.................................................................9实际利率下行推升黄金估值......................................................................9美联储货币宽松预期是实际利率下行主因....................................................10美联储宽货币仍有增强空间..........................................................................12宽货币环境有利于中期投资需求涌入............................................................164.央行购金是托底...................................................................................................205.贵金属行情展望...................................................................................................27年四季度展望：再创新高强势延续......................................................27风险提示......................................................................................................27 图：金银价格走势图.....................................................................................4图：金价与金银比.....................................................................................4图：金银铂钯价格走势图（）...............................................................4图：金银铂钯价格走势图（）...............................................................4图：黄金与铂钯..............................................................................................4图：白银与铂钯..............................................................................................4图：全球金银行情总览（截止月日）..................................................5图：全球贵金属行情总览（截止月日）..............................................5图：金银走势及相关事件...................................................................5图：与伦敦金价差多次异动.....................................................................7图：金价与跨市价差.............................................................................................8图：银价与跨市价差.............................................................................................8图：铂价与跨市价差.............................................................................................8图：钯价与跨市价差.............................................................................................8图：美国隐含利率.................................................................................................9图：金价与美指..................................................................................................10图：金价与美债实际利率............................................................................10图：美指及其构成货币涨跌幅....................................................................10图：美元指数贡献率..................................................................................10图：美国联邦基金隐含利率.................................................................................11图：美联储点阵图变化........................................................................................11图：美联储月经济预测表.................................................................................12图：美联储会后声明...............................................................................12图：美非农就业人数与失业率.......................................................................13图：美非农就业报告修正情况.............................................................................13图：美劳动力供需双双回落.................................................................................14图：美与...............................................................................................14图：美季度贡献率.....................................................................................14图：美周度经济指数与...............................................................................14图：美月度财政收支...........................................................................................15图：美政府利息支出及占比.................................................................................15图：美债上限不断上调甚至悬挂..........................................................................16图：美联储资产负债表........................................................................................16图：全球季度黄金投资需求（含金条金块与）与央行购金需求......................16图：全球黄金季度需求................................................................................17图：全球黄金月度需求................................................................................18图：全球黄金日度规模................................................................................18图：全球黄金月度增减量............................................................................18图：全球白银日度规模................................................................................19图：全球白银月度增减量............................................................................19图：全球黄金供需平衡表....................................................................................20图：全球央行季度累加购金量.............................................................................20图：央行购金与金价呈现一定负相关.......