绿色地平线：东亚的可持续能源未来

OVERVIEW © 2025TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,WashingtonDC20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in thisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheExecutiveDirectorsofTheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,links/footnotesandotherinformationshowninthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.ThecitationofworksauthoredbyothersdoesnotmeantheWorldBankendorsestheviewsexpressedbythoseauthorsorthecontentoftheirworks.Certain artificial intelligence (“AI”) tools may have been used in creating this work, as indicated in the work,butalltransformativeandcreativeeffortexpressedintheworkwasperformedbytheWorldBankstafforexternalcontributors.TheWorldBankisnotresponsibleforanyclaims,includingfor errors orinaccurateinformation,generatedbyAIprogramsnotcontrolledorownedbytheWorldBank. NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as fullattribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2025. Green Horizon: East Asia’s SustainableEnergy Future. © World Bank.” Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBank,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;email:pubrights@worldbank.org. Coverdesign:KevinKunyuSun Coverimage:Allcoverelementswereoriginallycreatedbythecoverdesigner. Foreword East Asia is pivotal to the world’s decarbonization efforts. In 2023, on aper-capita basis, greenhouse gas emissions in the East Asia and Pacificregion (excluding high-incomeeconomies) were 7.11 tCO2eper capita—lower than in OECD countries (8.01 tCO2eper capita) and high-incomecountries (9.89 tCO2eper capita). Yet, the region’s contribution to globalemissionsis large and expected to rise alongside economic growthandindustrialization.In 2023,the region produced more than a thirdof global greenhouse gas emissions and was the largest consumer ofcoal worldwide. China, Indonesia, and Viet Nam account for 80 percentof the region’s emissions and 88 percent of itscoal consumption, withthe power and industrial sectors responsible for 75–87 percent of ener-gy-relatedemissions.ThechoicesmadeinEastAsiawillshapetheglobalenergy and industrial landscape for decades to come. This report-GreenHorizon:EastAsia’sSustainableEnergyFutureis an important contributionto understand the pathways to intertwine energy and development im-peratives in East Asia. Thepower and industrial sectors must decarbonize in tandem. Theiremissions are closely linked, withindustries relying heavily on electricityand power generation shaped by industrial demand. As electricity useaccelerates,decarbonizingthepowersectoristhelinchpinoftheregion’sclean energy and industrial transformation—not only to reduce its ownemissions but also to enable industry to shift to clean energy. Advanc-ing both transitions together, through energy and material efficiency,electrification, green hydrogen, carbon capture, and clean feedstocks, isessential to achieving deep and lasting reductions. Massiveand coordinated investments will be needed.Industrial de-carbonizationalone will require USD 1.7 trillion in cumulative capitalthrough 2050—around USD 70 billion per year across China, Vietnam,and Indonesia. Decarbonizing the power sector in these economies willrequireUSD 9 trillion in cumulative investments from 2020 to 2040.These investments must be planned in a synchronized manner to ensurethat industrial system of tomorrow run on the clean electricity generatedby power systems of tomorrow. These transitions present a transformative opportunity. A shift to cleanpower and low-carbon industry can strengthen competitiveness, mod-ernize production systems, enhance energy security, and create signifi-cant new employment opportunities across East Asia’s economies. The World Bank Group is committed to realizing this opportunity. We willwork with governments, industry leaders, financiers, and developmentpartners to mobilize capital, share knowledge, and enable policies thatwill deliver anambitious, integrated clean energy and industrial transfor-mation across East Asia. MANUELAV.FERRO VicePresidentEastAsiaandPacificRegionThe World Bank Cont