绿色地平线：东亚可持续能源的未来（英）2025

EAST ASIA’SSUSTAINABLE © 2025TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,WashingtonDC20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in thisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheExecutiveDirectorsofTheWorldBankorthegovernments TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,links/footnotesandotherinformationshowninthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritory NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2025. Green Horizon: East Asia’s Sustainable Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBank,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625; Coverdesign:KevinKunyuSun Foreword East Asia is pivotal to the world’s decarbonization efforts. In 2023, on aper-capita basis, greenhouse gas emissions in the East Asia and Pacificregion (excluding high-incomeeconomies) were 7.11 tCO2eper capita—lower than in OECD countries (8.01 tCO2eper capita) and high-incomecountries (9.89 tCO2eper capita). Yet, the region’s contribution to globalemissionsis large and expected to rise alongside economic growthandindustrialization.In 2023,the region produced more than a third Thepower and industrial sectors must decarbonize in tandem. Theiremissions are closely linked, withindustries relying heavily on electricityand power generation shaped by industrial demand. As electricity useaccelerates,decarbonizingthepowersectoristhelinchpinoftheregion’s Massiveand coordinated investments will be needed.Industrial de-carbonizationalone will require USD 1.7 trillion in cumulative capitalthrough 2050—around USD 70 billion per year across China, Vietnam, These transitions present a transformative opportunity. A shift to cleanpower and low-carbon industry can strengthen competitiveness, mod- The World Bank Group is committed to realizing this opportunity. We willwork with governments, industry leaders, financiers, and developmentpartners to mobilize capital, share knowledge, and enable policies that MANUELAV.FERROVicePresidentEastAsiaandPacificRegion Contents T whelmingmajority of thegreenhouse gasemissions(GHG)emanatingfromthesecountries.WithaspecificfocusonChina,Indonesia,andVietNam,whichtogetheraccountfor80percentofregion’semissionsandrepresent88percentoftheregion’scoalconsumption,thereportarguesforastepped-uproleofrenewables in driving the region’s ambitious growth agenda,net zero targets,and industrialization and urbanization trajectory. Combining desk research,privatesector surveys,stakeholder consultations,and quantitative modeling—anddrawing from World Bank’s widespread operational footprint in the region— EastAsiatopsallotherworldregionsgreenhousegasemissionsandcoal As of 2023, the region produced 42 percent of global GHG emissions. This level of emissionsemerges from heavy reliance on coal to meet the region’s rising energy demand. The regionaccounts for nearly 60 percent of global coal consumption and 69 percent of global coal power generation in 2023(FIGURE 1a). From 2001 to 2023, coal consumption intensified in all focus inVietNamto787gCO2/kWhinIndonesia,farexceedingtheOECDaverageof322gCO2/kWh.Thegrowth in CO2-equivalent emissions has risen in East Asia faster than in any other region in the region. Thetwosectorscontribute75–87percentofenergy-relatedGHGemissionsinthefocuscountries(FIGURES 2 and 3). Rising electricity demand, primarily driven by increased electrification and the region’s central role in global supply chains, have fueled a more than 400 percent increase inelectricity and heat-related emissions between 1990 and 2021. The power sector’s share of totalemissions in the region rose from 24 percent in 1990 to nearly 43 percent in 2021 (IEA 2022). Electricitydemandisexpectedtoincreaseby25percentto12,600TWhby2030,upfromroughly10,200TWhin2023,andtomorethandoubleto22,700TWhby2060(IEA2024).Similarly,indus-trialenergydemandisprojectedtogrowby72percentinIndonesiaand143percentinVietNamfrom2022to2050.Inthemeantime,manyEastAsiaandPacific(EAP)countrieshavecommittedtoambitious climate targets.For example,China has committed to peaking carbon emissions Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of natural disasters, which