2025年信贷市场展望

Examining trends in private credit andbroadly syndicated loans across the US and Europe Contents Methodology2Foreword3Key findings4Part 1: Current trends and outlook5Company performance15Part 2: Risks, ructions and regulation16Third parties23Conclusion: What’s next for the private credit and BSL markets?24 Methodology In the second quarter of 2025, Debtwire surveyed 150 senior executivesfrom alternative asset managers with meaningful exposure to privatedebt strategies and AUMs of at least US$2bn. Of these, 75 were based inWestern Europe and 75 were based in the US. Those surveyed includedprivate debt, private equity, hedge funds, real estate, infrastructure andasset managers/investment managers. On a general basis, all charts show overall figures except when figuresbased on region or type of organization are statistically significant. Foreword The explosive growth of private credit, expandingto a record US$3 trillion in assets undermanagement (AUM) globally at the end of 2024,according to the Alternative Credit Council, hasfundamentally reshaped the leveraged financeecosystem. Its ascent was driven by post-GreatFinancial Crisis regulations like the Dodd-FrankAct and Basel that led traditional banks to stepback from some corporate lending to minimizebalance sheet risk. Private credit funds movedin to fill this void, initially providing financing tocompanies that no longer fit the rigid risk criteriaof regulated banks. This essential role wasfurther cemented during the market volatilityof the COVID-19 pandemic, where private creditdemonstrated its capacity to act as a responsivesource of capital when public markets seized up. Indeed, a more complex and symbioticrelationship is developing between private creditfunds and banks themselves. It is now commonto see banks providing leverage directly tocredit funds or participating alongside them inco-investment opportunities. Simultaneously,many traditional lenders are becoming directcompetitors by launching their own private creditplatforms. This is creating an intricate ecosystemwhere banks act as partners, service providers,and placement agents all at once, fostering adeeply interconnected financial landscape. This growing sophistication and entanglementwith the banking system represents the nextchapter for the asset class. It is most evident inthe growth of structured finance, particularlythrough risk-sharing arrangements like syntheticrisk transfers (SRT) –a phenomenon moredeveloped in Europe so far –which test thecollaborative boundaries between banks andfunds. As the market’s tentacles reach into thesemore complex structures, it raises new andimportant questions about financial stability,drawing increased attention from investorsand regulators alike. However, this is not a zero-sum game that hasstymied the broadly syndicated loan (BSL)market. Instead, it represents a major expansionof the overall credit universe. The relationshipbetween these two lending markets hasevolved, breeding more competition but alsomore choices for borrowers when it comes tofinancing their transactions. For sponsors and corporate borrowers alike,the choice is no longer about which market isinherently superior, but which offers the optimalblend of cost, speed, certainty, and flexibilityfor a specific borrowing facility. This choice isnow richer than ever, as private credit platformshave themselves matured from offering simpleloans to providing a full spectrum of customizedcapital solutions, from stalwart unitrancheproducts to hybrid debt-equity instruments,and asset-backed finance. This report, now in its second year and drawingon fresh survey data, examines the current stateof play and the evolution that has taken placein both markets in the last year. It analyzes thefundamental characteristics of private credit andBSL in the US and Europe; maps the competitiveintersection where they meet; explores thestructural shifts reshaping the debt financingecosystem; and provides a forward-lookingperspective on the strategic implications fordealmakers in 2025 and beyond. Key findings Direct lendingleads the way The broadly syndicatedloan (BSL) market feelsthe competitive heat Regulatory scrutinyis the top hurdle The market is bracing for impactfrom regulators. Over a third ofmanagers (37%) identify risingregulatory scrutiny as the singlegreatest potential hurdle to thesustained growth of the privatecredit market. An almost unanimous 99% ofrespondents have exposure to directlending strategies, and over a third(35%) identify it as the largest partof their private credit allocation. Competitive pressure is the dominantconcern for the BSL market, with30% of respondents citing it as thesingle biggest impact shaping thismarket, a considerable rise fromlast year’s survey. This reflects theintense battle for mandates withprivate credit. Private credit takesshare from banks Private credit cedesground on covenants Europe vs US Western Europe has greaterexposure to direct lending t