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Fed in Focus We provide context and perspective on research acrossregions and asset classes, this week examining the upcomingbenchmark revision from the BLS, the historical equitymarket performance following a restart of rate cuts, and theBoJ's upcoming MPM. Equity Product Management Group Terence Malone*+ 1 212 526 7578terence.malone@barclays.comBCI, US Rob Bate*+44 (0)20 7773 3576rob.bate@barclays.comBarclays, UK •The BLS Benchmark Revision:The BLS estimates that its upcoming benchmark revision willreduce the gain in nonfarm payroll employment over the 12-month period ended in March2025 by 911k. At face value this would reduce the estimated pace of monthly job gains fromApril 2024 to March 2025 by about 76k/m, to 71k/m. That said, we doubt that these estimatesmeaningfully change the FOMC's rate trajectory. The magnitude is also unlikely to come as abig surprise, given that Chair Powell has already highlighted indications of an over-count inprior communications. Assuming the revision stands, the new trajectory of monthly job gainswould be much flatter than the current vintage, which features an abrupt deceleration thisMay. For hawks, this supports the argument that slowing job gains are more a reflection ofgradually adverse labor supply developments than weakening demand. Doves will argue thatpayroll estimates continued to overstate job gains this spring, implying the Fed is even furtherbehind the curve. Neither argument is definitive, in our view. FICC Product Management GroupJennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, US Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US •Rate Cut Restarts & Equity Performance:We identified seven instances of the Fed resumingits rate-cutting cycleaftera significant pause over the last five decades. In the instanceswhere the restart of rate cuts wasn't followed by a downturn, equities continued to grindsteadily higher and reached new highs within the next six months, outperforming bonds. Butwhere a recession unfolded, equities mostly droppedafterthe cut, although they bouncedback over the course of the next 12 months, and bonds outperformed, at least initially.Further, if current rate pricing remains unchallenged by incoming data, a bull flatteningregime could hold and continue to support equities, in our view. However, if inflation were to Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. * This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks inthis publication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live. FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 34.FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 34.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 35.Completed: 12-Sep-25, 22:14 GMTReleased: 14-Sep-25, 13:00 GMTRestricted - External surprise strongly to the upside or activity data were to deteriorate considerably and igniterecession fears, both bear and bull flattening might be unhelpful for equities. •September BoJ Preview:We expect the BoJ to keep its policy rate at 0.5% and to leave itsguidance unchanged at the monetary policy meeting (MPM) on 18-19 September. Themomentum of inflation remains solid. However, amid deepening political turmoil and a sharpdeterioration in US employment data, we believe the BoJ will have to adopt a wait-and-seestance for the time being, ostensibly to monitor the impact oftariffson corporate profits andwage hikes, while welcoming the mitigation of uncertainties due to the recent executiveorder. Based on these factors, we have pushed out our forecast for the next rate hike toJanuary from October. That being said, there is still a decent possibility of a rate hike withinthe year. For example, we believe the JPY could see renewed depreciation, especially if SanaeTakaichi, known as a dove, rises to prominence. In such a case, given that the Trumpadministration does not favor further JPY weakness, the BoJ may be compelled to proceedwith an early rate hike. Chart of the Week: Tech and Financials drove earnings growth