随着旺季临近汽车电池出货量增加（英）

EQUITY:AUTOS&AUTOPARTS Research Analysts Increasing shipments as peak season approaches ChinaAutos&AutoParts Joel Ying, CFA - NIHKjoel.ying@nomura.com+85222522153 Aug-25EVpenetrationfinallyshowssomeimprovement Sequential improvement in sales as year-end approaches, while competitiondynamicsremain unchanged Global EV Batteries &Materials Ethan Zhang - NIHKethan.zhang@nomura.com+852 2252 2157 The China auto market delivered 2.5mn wholesales unit shipments (+16.4% y-y, +11.0%m-m) and 2.0mn retail unit shipments (+4.6% y-y, +8.2% m-m) in Aug-25, both showing asales reached 1.1mn units shipment (+7.3% y-y, +11.5% m-m). We believe EVpenetration has finally crossed its monthly record, reaching 54.5%, but after a year's gap.We reaffirm our view that the slowing down of EV penetration in 2025 will likely bring morechallenges ahead for the entire industry in 2026F. In the remaining part of 2025, with BYD already shifting its focus to its strategy for 2026,we see no major changes in the competition landscape. Hence, YTD market sharewinners such as Geely and Leapmotor should continue enjoying the current momentum.as NIO's new ES8, Li Auto's i6 and XPENG's X9 EREV version. As the market is yet toreach the bottom in terms of fierce competition, we believe small players will remainvulnerable into 2026F. We maintain our cautious view on the entire China auto market'sdevelopment before seeing any meaningful balancing effort on the supply- demanddynamics. Price competition and focus on market share gain result in vulnerable financials formost of the OEMs in 1H25; overseas market may underpin long-term growth,butwealso seeriskahead As OEMs have already reported their 1H25 results, the ASPs for the entire market are stillon a downward trend, therefore resulting in pressure on GPM. Meanwhile, to deal withcompetition, OEMs remain active in R&D and SG&A expenditure, therefore creatingfurther pressure on their profitability. As the oversupply situation remains unchanged, webelieve this trend will likely continue into next year (Fig. 16 to Fig. 20). Considering the domestic market situation, global expansion has become a commonstrategy for most of the active players. However, geopolitical and business operationalrisks cannot be ignored. As Mexico plans to raise tariffs on autos imported from China andother Asia countries from 20% to 50% (URL), we believe this further raises the need forChina players to have a long-term plan for global expansion. While China auto salesrepresented around 20% of the domestic market share in Mexico, we expect some short-term negative impact for some of the major players with local sales, including BYD, SAC(including MG), Chery, Great Wall Motor and Changan Auto. Nevertheless, as the marketremains fragmented, the impact on overseas sales or export data for these individualplayers should be under control. We believe this trend will likely continue in the globalmarket, and for players with long-term plans, there is still a long way to go. Batteries and materials: lithium prices likely to be volatile in the near term According to CABIA, China's battery production and shipment increased 37% and 46% y-y, respectively, in August 2025, with the production-to-shipment ratio at 104%. EV batteryinstallation delivered 32% y-y or 12% m-m growth to 62.5GWh during the month, withCATL retaining its leadership position with 42.3% share. Lithium carbonate (LC) pricerose to CNY86k/tonne by mid-August after CATL suspending its lithium mining, followedby a decline to CNY73k/tonne in early Sept. We expect LC price to be volatile in the near-term, considering the likely robust demand in the near-term on seasonal strength anduncertainties over ongoing mining permit issue in Jiangxi province. ProductionCo:2025-09-11 17:19 UTC Sequential improvement as auto sales' peakseason approaches The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) reported Aug-25 monthlysales for the China PV market on 11 Sept, with 2.6mn wholesale unit shipments (+16.4%y-y, +11.0% m-m). PV retail sales, excluding minivans, were at 2.0mn units, +4.6% y-yand +8.2% m-m, according to CPCA (China Passenger Car Association). China PV EVmonthly retail sales were at 1.1mn units in the month, +7.3% y-y and +11.5% m-m. EVpenetration finally reached a record-high of 54.5% as entering into Aug-25. We reaffirmour view that a slowing down of penetration for EVs in 2025 will likely bring morechallenges ahead for the entire industry in 2026F. +13.6% y-y. Retails, excluding minivan shipments, were at 14.7mn units, +9.5% y-y. PVEV retail sales were at 7.5mn units during the same period, +25.5% y-y. BEV continued tooutperform PHEV/EREV growth in 8M25. According to CPCA, BEVs delivered 44%/32%y-y wholesales/retail shipments growth during the period, while PHEV/EREV claimed22%/16% y-y wholesales/retail shipments growth. Source: CAAM, Nomura research Source: CPCA, Nomura research Source: CPCA, Nomura research Source: CPCA, Nomura research Looking