DHL海运市场更新——2025年9月

SEPTEMBER 2025 Executive summaryGrowing demand is met by faster growing capacity and trade volatility US tariffs are mostly set after months of uncertainty; at highest levels since 1930s, they dampen but donot halt global trade; growing fleet and, for now, slower reaction tocapacity mgmt. create rate pressure US tariffs Status quo–for now: Deals were reached, but China remains as the large unknown After months of uncertainty, US import tariffs have now come into effect; during ongoing negotiationswith China, a 30% tariff applies which explains the lack of growth despite recurring deadline extensions Applicable tariffs •Aftermonths of uncertainty, US tariffs have come intoeffect•This bringstariff ratesfor US imports to anaverage of approx.18%, ranging from 10-50%•Goods aresubject to new tariffsifloadedonAug 7or later, orifenteringthe US afterOct 51)•Transshipment penalties of 40%on top of duty have beenestablished toavoid circumventionof tariffs•Next to country-specific tariffs,product-specific tariffsof25-50%apply particularly onmetals and machinery•Deadlinefor China tariffs was extended intoNovember,peakseasonshouldnotbeimpacted•Despite extension, a30% flat tariff still applies, sodemandinto US has remainedflat •Almost allimportsaresubject to 10-50% duty, depending on theorigin; there are someproduct-specific dutiesthat apply instead,irrespectiveof theorigin•So far,uncertainty around tariffshasslowed global trade-full impacton shipping andsupply chainsto be seen now that rates have come into effectglobally•After tariff go-live, theIMF2)increased 2025 trade growth forecastback to2.6%, butreduced2026forecast down to1.9%from 2.5% previously CapacityFlat today–flooded soon? While nominal capacity continues to grow, effective capacity is impacted by Suez diversion and portcongestion around the world, particularly in Asia and Europe •Nominal capacity has been growingby approx.6%YoY since 2018,unstoppedby Covid•2025growth of7%is slightly higher than long-term average, andgrowth ratesare expected tohold up in upcoming years •Capacityincreaseis currently used to meetdemand(and demandspikes), next to partially covering forcongestionandSuezdiversion•If eitherdemand growthwere toslowdown,congestionis eased, orSuezroutes reopen,carriersface major challenges tomanage capacity, e.g.throughscrappingorslow steaming–more details onnext page Deep dive: Capacity managementCarriers have hardly scrapped any capacity recently, but this may change soon Number of 2025 demolitions is second-lowest over past 20 years, only outdone by 2022, given Suezdeviation and congestion; to match reduced demand growth, scrapping is expected to pick up shortly •New shipsareexpected toadd 1/3 of today’scapacityto global fleet overnext 4 years•This isin excess of expected demandgrowth of20-25%, so continued fleet expansion islikelytobe met withincreased scrapping •Share ofnew capacityranges between4-10%•Share ofscrapped capacityhas fallen andremainedbelow 1%of capacitysince 2018•Demand and capacityare gradually returning tobebalancedafter post-Covid spike and Suez DemandTariffs slow growth, but globalization is here to stay Demand development is in line with capacity, but US tariffs announced in April are impacting growthrates; Asian exports surging to other destinations, such as Middle East, North Africa, or Latin America •Demand developmentof 7% YoY and 9% YTDover last 12 months roughlyin line with capacity•Growth has tapered offa bit inrecent monthsgiven announcement of and subsequentuncertainty around US tariffs •Overallgrowth is positive, but2025 volume growthis flat, driven by overallsecond-largest trade Asia-AMNOdeclining by-7% YoY•Asian exportsare surging toother destinations-particularly Middle East, North Africa, orLatin America•This indicates thattariffsmayslow down global trade, but not stop it:globalization is here to stay, withMENATasstrongestO/D regiondespite recent war Freight ratesLong-term rates, service and capacity are stable, as spot rates continue to drop Early summer increases on Trans-Pacific trades have almost completely reversed; with lack of demandgrowth, drop to 2023 lows is possible if carriers do not resort to aggressive capacity management •After ashort summer peak,rates are fallingagain, driven byweak TPEB1), resulting inYoYdeclineof-51%•Futuresforesee aslight rate increasetowardstheend of 2025, thereafterfurther decline •FEWB3)rateshas had astableyear so far, withsolid demandandconsistent volumes•Ratesare graduallyreducingas peak season is over •East Coastrates arenormalizing after spikefromUS-bound capacity diversion•West Coastratesgraduallyclimbingafter capacity mgmt. •Rates fell for12 weeksbutappear to bottom as capacitymgmt. comes into effect•Little relieffrom recent90-day Chinatariff extension •Ratescontinue todrop, withTPEBreaching2023lows, whileFEWBhas been proven an anchor ofstabilitythis year•Expected slightrateincreasein Q4 is driven byupcoming peak season, butlack of demand grow