DHL海运市场更新——2025年5月

OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET UPDATE MAY 2025–PUBLICATION DATE MAY 1ST, 2025 Excellence. Simply delivered. Content Ocean Freight Market Outlook May 2025 Freight Rates Capacity Outlook Regulations/News Demand Outlook •TP blank sailings rising rapidly asUS tariff concessions insufficientto restore demand. Higher thanusual cancellation rate currently.•Carriers warn of delays ascongestion increases atEuropean ports, particularly inAntwerp, Hamburg,Bremerhaven, Algeciras, andValencia, limiting availablecapacity.•Carriersstarting to shiftcapacityfrom the TP to other trade lanes,including Asia-Europe. •USTR has significantly revisedthe port fee plan on China-connected vessels.•Effective May 1st, 2025, theMediterranean Sea will bedesignated as an EmissionControl Area (ECA) forsulphuroxides, requiring vessels to useLSFO with 0.1%sulphurinsteadof 0.5%. Consequently, DHL hasupdated its BAF to reflect theincreased fuel costs.•Status of US tariffs involvesongoing changes anduncertainty. •Global GDP growth forecasts arenow 2.2% for 2025and2.4%for2026.•S&P PMI indicates weakperformance, with decliningbusinessexpectations, risingmanufacturing prices, especiallyin the US.Rising risk of recessionin US.•Increase in cargo bookingcancellations on TP. Stabledemandin other trades includingTransatlantic.•Drewry &Linerlytica have cutcontainer growth projections to-1% in 2025. •Rates stabilizing at current levelsand further volatility expected astrade agreements and tariffdiscussions continue.•A lot of short-term spot ratevolatility.•If/When CN-US tariff dispute issolved, we expect significantequipment and capacityconstraints that could lead toincreasing rates. Revised US Trade Representative Regulation on US Port Fee Targeting China’sMaritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors(1/2) In a significant shift, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has revised its plans regarding port fee regulations targeting Chinesecarriers and shipyards, with enforcement starting on October 14th, 2025. •Chinese operated vessels: Starting at USD 50 per net ton, increasing to USD 140 by 2028.•Chinese built vessels: USD 18 per net ton, rising to USD 33 by 2028, or USD 120 per container, increasing to USD 250 in2028-whichever amount is higher.•Non-U.S. built vessels carrying cars: USD 150 per vehicle.•Fee application: Charges apply onlyon the first US port calland can occur up to five times per year. Exemptions: •Ships operating exclusively between US ports, within the Great Lakes, or to/from Caribbean ports.•Vessels smaller than 4,000 TEU or on voyages shorter than 2,000 nautical miles. Consequences for Container Shipping: Only 7% of containerships calling at US ports in 2024 would have been subject to these fees. Notably, Chinese companies likeCOSCO and its sister company OOCL significantly impacted, while operators which runs smaller vessels, will avoid these charges.Timeline October 14, 2025:enforcement begins 2028:final phased fee increases will be implemented. UNCLASSIFIED (PUBLIC) Revised US Trade Representative Regulation on US Port Fee Targeting China’sMaritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors(2/2) Tariff disruptions | DHL Global Forwarding mitigation measures As continuous changes to US customs regime created prolonged volatility, it is important to keep engaging DHL GlobalForwarding for solutions. Context •Changing US tariffs announcementscontinue, and trading partners havebeen responding in different ways•Customersare assessingorderbooks and sourcing patternsto reduce cost of imports•Shippersare increasingly looking forinterim solutions at originto storeordered and produced merchandisethat is on hold for shipping•Looking ahead,current disruptionmay lead tocongestion and lack ofcapacityfor vessels and containersalike once demand resumes Market Developments MSC first carrier to reach a fleet of900 vessels, with another 132vessels on order. Their total fleetnow stands at 6.47mTEU. 16% of global capacity currentlytied up in routing around Cape ofGood Hope or portcongestions/delays. Demand Global container tradegrew+11.2%in January. Meanwhile, Linerlyticahas cut container growthprojections to-1.1% in 2025. Shippers are pausing shipments toevaluate tariff impacts, potentiallyreducing volumes in April and May.They must decide whether toreplenish inventory and pay tariffsbefore the 90-day pause ends,which could lead to a surge inshipments to the US in lateJune/July. Demand is expected to remainrobust except on Transpacific dueto tariff war, which could spill overto other trades if it continues forlonger period. Regional Market Development–Major Trades Port Congestion Congestion at major North American ports improving but still exceeds pre-pandemic levels. In Asia, congestion has seen a slightdecline, withKaohsiung showing improvement, while Shanghai, Ningbo, Colombo, Chittagong, Laem Chabang, Surabaya, and TanjungPriokremaincongested. In Europe, significant congestion at major ports, particularly Rotterdam and Antwerp,